Uncertain future for Brahmaputra flows

China defending the construction of the world’s largest hydropower project in the lower reaches of Yarlung Zangbo (the Siang in Arunachal Pradesh, the Brahmaputra in Assam) to be fully within China’s sovereignty only deepens concern in the Northeast region over equitable sharing of water of the trans-boundary river. A unilateral decision by China on the use of trans-boundary river water only adds another layer of uncertainty in an already ecologically fragile region even as climate change impact precipitates the disaster vulnerability in downstream areas in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. China has claimed that it has rich experience in hydropower projects and acts with a high sense of responsibility in harnessing cross-border rivers. The project puts a lot of emphasis on all-round ecological conservation, stays away from multiple environmentally sensitive areas, and vows to preserve the original ecosystem to the largest extent possible, states an official statement by Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson. However, the lack of transparency about the project and also China not sharing real-time data on water discharge have only fuelled the apprehension in the region over water availability in the Brahmaputra in the future once China completes the construction of the gigantic hydropower project. Opinions are divided in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh over the impact of the Chinese project. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu warned that it could pose an existential threat if China suddenly releases water from the Yarlung Zangbo dam during the flood season and drastically reduces water flow during the lean winter season. His concern stems from the fact that India and China do not have a water-sharing agreement that could bind China from taking any unilateral action to disrupt the natural flow in the transboundary river that is also the lifeline of people in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. Assam Chief Minister Dr. Himanta Biswa Sarma, however, has taken a cautious approach and insists that there is no immediate reason to worry over the project. His conviction stems from the scientific fact that water availability in the Brahmaputra is not dependent on a single source, even though he acknowledges the uncertainty over the impact of construction of the Chinese dam. Chief Minister Sarma argues that the Brahmaputra receives most of its water from Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh, and rainwater received in Assam, due to which the scientific community is divided over the impact of the Chinese hydropower project—the region’s biodiversity is to be impacted due to a shortfall in water availability and the project acting as a flood cushion, which will reduce flood intensity in the region. China too seeks to allay apprehension in India and Bangladesh by insisting that the project puts a lot of emphasis on all-round ecological conservation, stays away from multiple environmentally sensitive areas, and vows to preserve the original ecosystem to the largest extent possible and adds that the project, once completed, will help prevent and mitigate disasters along the entire Yarlung Zangbo River and will not adversely affect downstream regions. Opacity in the Chinese project shields facts and intention with a veil of secrecy, due to which India must keep monitoring the development and engage with China diplomatically to share more details about the project. A pragmatic approach will be to undertake a comprehensive scientific study before rushing to a conclusion merely based on perception, but India taking its own safeguards against the potential adverse impact of the Yarlung Zangbo project is an urgent necessity. The proposed construction of the Siang multipurpose project pushed by the Pema Khandu government needs to be considered in the context of China being capable of regulating the water flow of the river after completion of the Yarlung Zangbo dam of the hydropower project. The Siang project has hit a roadblock of strong opposition by people who are likely to be affected by the conduct of the prefeasibility study in Arunachal Pradesh. While the Arunachal Pradesh government has been able to garner support of four of 12 villages, it will be required to continuously engage with representatives of organisations opposing the Siang project to secure their consent. Widening the contour of the prefeasibility study and including a thorough scientific study about the potential impact on water discharge and environmental impact of the Chinese project will help put the public discourse around the impact of the Siang project in Arunachal Pradesh and downstream areas of Assam into perspective. China coming forward to enter into a water-sharing agreement with India on the Brahmaputra is critical to creating a conducive atmosphere of mutual trust, cooperation, and long-term cooperation for water security in the region and enhancing the sustainability of climate-resilient disaster management. As the issue falls in the domain of the Ministry of External Affairs, extreme opinions not backed by any scientific findings should not be allowed to sway public discourse and are best avoided. It is incumbent upon the central government to address the apprehension of people in the Northeast.