Voters’ perceptions of poll issues 

A pre-poll survey by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) has found that  unemployment and price rises are the fore most concerns  for voters in this Lok Sabha poll. Rushing to the conclusion that the two issues will also equally influence voting patterns in all states will be erroneous. Perceptions on different issues and concepts of development play the most crucial role in the decision-making of average voters. Spin doctors in political parties, ruling as well as opposition, articulate new promises that set new narratives, and also change the perceptions of voters during the run-up to polls. Neo-liberal economy and globalization have brought new concepts of employment outside the contour of the traditional perception of a permanent job or employment, either in government or private sectors. In the new ecosystem of employment, jobs are skill-based, and hence, a job cut in one private company does not entirely shut the door to new opportunities. Skills acquired during employment beyond professional training received through degrees, diplomas, or certificates awarded by educational and professional institutes remain with the jobseekers. The concept of freelance jobs such as gig workers has created a new labour market in the country, which needs to be considered to properly understand the aspirations among youth who are familiar with the new realities of a liberalised and globalised economy. While such freelance employment is growing in urban and semi-urban areas, infrastructure sectors such as highways, bridges, railway lines, and real estate have increased the demand for daily wage workers or seasonal workers in rural areas. Besides, construction workers in rural areas, such as masons, carpenters, plumbers, and electricians, have new employment opportunities under flagship schemes like the Prime Minister’s Awas Yojana, the Jal Jeevan Mission, rooftop solar connections, the construction of educational institutions, and healthcare institutions. They cannot be regarded as unemployed just because they do not have permanent employment in a government department or a private company. These flagship programmes, targeting a large number of beneficiaries, continue for consecutive years and require the continuous hiring of workers with different skills. The central government’s statistics contradict the claims of different policy think tanks about unemployment rising. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), which is conducted by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), estimated the worker population ratio (WPR) on usual status for persons of age 15 years and older during the years 2018–19, 2019–20, 2020–21, 2021–22, and 2022–23 is 47.3%, 50.9%, 52.6%, 52.9%, and 56.0%, respectively. The CSDS survey claimed that 62% of respondents indicated that securing employment has increasingly become difficult. The government insists that the PLFS data indicates that the WPR, indicating employment, has an increasing trend over the years. Nevertheless, ignoring unemployment as a non-issue among voters by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party could prove to be an electoral blunder when opposition parties have made it a major poll plank and when the ruling party is striving to increase its tally in 2019. For the opposition parties led by the Congress, too, banking heavily on the issue without considering the ground realities of changing employment opportunities and aspirations could prove disastrous. In the northeastern region, for instance, several emotive issues of identity, ethnicity, and geopolitics in the neighbourhood often overshadow the issues of price rise, unemployment, and corruption in most elections. lakhs of migrant workers from the region whose remittance to their households in their home state has strengthened the rural economy, and therefore their perception aspiration of employment differs from that of educated job seekers within the region as well as outside, but they may be influenced by an emotive issue of linguistic, ethnic, or religious identities. The other issue of price rise highlighted in the CSDS survey appears to have become a key poll issue for the middle class, as the central and state governments are running cash payout schemes and free rice distribution to offset the inflationary pressures on poorer sections of the population. As government measures have failed to moderate food inflation and the price rise of essential commodities continues to skyrocket, the relief provided through subsidised rice and cash payouts is also getting gradually reduced, even for many beneficiary households. In such a situation, the issue of price rises snowballing into a major poll issue cannot be ruled out. Voters weigh issues with poll promises by the parties and candidates to decide their franchise. There are also other key factors, like governance and the delivery of government benefits and services, that influence their decisions. Direct benefit transfer and digital money transfer have provided the Narendra Modi-led government with a clear edge over all previous regimes by establishing that transparency in government benefit and service delivery has put a complete halt to the syphoning of beneficiary money by a nexus of corrupt politicians, bureaucrats, traders, and ruling party functionaries and members as middlemen. The ruling party is banking on the changing governance ecosystem to blunt the opposition campaign.