Warning signals for India from Maldives

Amitava Mukherjee

(The author is a senior journalist and commentator. He can be reached at amitavamukherjee253@gmail.com)

Mohamed Nasheed, at present the Speaker of the Maldivian Parliament, is an exceptional person. He is a champion of political pluralism and of promotion of human rights and democracies in Islamic countries. He is credited with the achievement of removing the longest reigning dictator in Asia. He has another very important feather in his cap. He has played a prominent global role for actions to curb greenhouse gasses for which the Time Magazine had declared him a ‘Hero of Environment’. He has won several other laurels from the United Nations, the Newsweek magazine and sundry other organizations.

So when such a person feels aggrieved months before the Presidential election in Maldives, to be held in September this year, the development does not bode well for Maldives as well as for India whose security interests in the Indian Ocean region are closely entangled with the archipelago.

Instead of Nasheed, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the incumbent President of Maldives, has been chosen as the candidate of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) for the coming Presidential election. Nasheed has already aired his displeasure at the outcome and has hinted that he might form a separate party or a separate pressure group within the MDP and will decide later on about support to the official candidate. There are several nuances behind the MDP choosing Solih as the candidate. The party has done it with an eye to the evolving geo-politics in the Indian Ocean region.

But if the MDP really suffers a split before the coming election then New Delhi has much to worry about. MDP votes will get split and this will give advantage to the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) which has a pronounced pro-China tilt.

This may cost India dearly. According to the European Foundation for South Asian Studies Maldives has the highest per capita figure in the world number of citizens who have joined the ISIS (Islamic State) - a figure of more than 300. So, one in every 1500 Maldivians becomes a terrorist fighter. Moreover between 20 and 30 street gangs having a membership strength of between 50 and 400 operate in the capital Male alone, not to speak of other areas. It is quite reasonable to believe that a good number of them are imbued with fundamentalist Islamic thoughts.

If the next Presidential administration really turns anti-India then a repercussion may be felt in Jammu and Kashmir because the Maldivian terrorist fighters have a history of travelling to war zones and take part in ‘crusades’. According to published reports nearly 500 of them attempted to go to Iraq and Syria and nearly 200 of them ultimately landed there. So there is no guarantee that some of them would not cast their eyes on Jammu and Kashmir with a pro-China administration in Male, turning a blind eye to it.

But one can guess why the MDP has given ticket to Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. His philosophy of political programme is ‘India First’ while that of Nasheed is ‘India Only’. Palpably the MDP wants to maintain a balance in its Indian Ocean region policy given China’s phenomenal rise as a world power, while Nasheed is all for tying knots with India and the US. There is another angle in this geopolitical evolution. Maldives is a totally Sunni Muslim country and no one can settle in this archipelago unless he is a Muslim. Perhaps, a significant section of the MDP leadership is wary of losing votes lest its identification with the India-US axis goes against the wishes of the electorate given the strained relation between the US and an influential section of the Islamic world leadership. The Saudi Arabia-Iran peace deal brokered by China must not have gone unnoticed by the Maldivian political leadership.

China’s bet in Maldives is Abdullah Yameen, leader of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), who is also the half brother of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, the autocratic strongman whom Mohamed Nasheed had replaced through a democratic election in 2008. It is not yet certain whether Abdullah Yameen would ultimately contest the Presidential election as he is now in jail serving an 11-year sentence. It is also not clear whether New Delhi is maintaining a subterranean channel of communication with him. But till recently, before his incarceration, Yameen had constantly run an ‘India Out’ and ‘Indian Military Out’ campaign in Maldives. This happens even after India has taken back the two Dhruv helicopters as demanded by Yameen during his reign and has gifted a Dornier aircraft which was included in Yameen’s list of demands. But India does not have any military base in Maldives and the Dornier is to be operated by the Maldives National Defence Force whose personnel were trained in India.

Both India and China are increasing their strategic depths in Maldives considering the several important sea lanes which pass through its maritime territory. Both are investing in several connectivity projects. New Delhi has installed a good number of radar stations for communications among the islands and has provided financial assistance for reviving the Maldivian economy from Covid-19 shocks. It has extended a USD 500 million aid for connectivity projects out of it USD 100 million is grant and 400 million is credit. Similarly, China has also partially suspended loan repayment by Maldives for four years. But the Maldivian political leadership has become wary about Beijing’s debt-trap policy and has suspended proposals of some China funded projects.

Still Maldives is neck deep in debt. India gives Male financial support from her own budgetary allocations. But even a section of the MDP is now perhaps chary of siding with India totally in matters of regional geo-politics. Will it disturb the balance of power in the Indian Ocean region? Only future can give the answer.