Why the Jamaat-i-Islami in Bangladesh Needs to be Watched More Closely

Amitava Mukherjee

(The author is a senior journalist and commentator on current affairs.)

The outcome of the just-concluded election in Bangladesh is a critical chapter to be analysed and watched more closely in the days to come. Not only does it signify a fundamental shift and transition in Bangladeshi society, but the impressive result of the Jamaat leaves sufficient reason for New Delhi to be extra cautious about the security scenario all along its eastern and northeastern border, as the Jamaat has won the maximum number of its seats from those districts of Bangladesh that have borders with India.

Now let us have a look at Jamaat's success figure. It has secured 68 seats and 31.76 per cent of votes. Its vote percentage is something to be noted with all seriousness. Most of the opinion poll surveys conducted before the election gave Jamaat 25-26 percent of votes, at the most. However, in reality, the party has experienced a significantly larger increase in support. Surely the Jamaat-i-Islami (JeI) in Bangladesh has come out of a peripheral zone and has now placed itself at the centre stage of Bangladeshi politics. Its previous best record was in 1991 when it won 18 seats and 12 per cent of popular votes. Most importantly, it has done reasonably well in Dhaka, where it won six out of 20 seats. This is another example of its growing acceptability among the Western-type-curricula-educated population. However, this year's election in Bangladesh has highlighted a stark reality: not only the Jamaat-i-Islami, but the entire Islamist bloc has significantly increased its vote share.

This should cause no surprise, as both the Awami League and the BNP have curried favour with the Islamist bloc, particularly the Jamaat, for a long time. In 1991 the BNP had entered into a political coalition with the Jamaat, and this had helped the former win that year's election. But the scenario changed before the 1996 poll. The Jamaat's relationship with the BNP deteriorated, leading to the Awami League forming an alliance with the Jamaat to organise movements against the BNP-led government.

That the Jamaat-i-Islami has done so well in the last election should not cause much surprise. It goes without saying that Awami League votes were not transferred to the Jamaat; rather, they have gone to the BNP kitty. That explains the surge in BNP's vote percentage. But how can one account for the big jump in Jamaat's vote percentage? The answer lies in the votes from Gen Z, a significant portion of which must have gone in Jamaat's favour. This is the most important lesson from this year's election. It signifies that a new type of cloud formation is taking place in Bangladesh's political horizon. Tariq Rahaman will have to deviate from conventional political tools to deal with the situation. It bears imports for India, too.

But why has a large section of Gen Z supposedly reposed its faith in the Jamaat-i-Islami? It is due to long -standing political and societal corruption, unemployment and weak governance perpetrated by mainstream political parties. According to a survey by Transparency International, in 2024 Bangladesh ranked 151 out of 180 countries in terms of quality of governance. A year later it was ranked 149th, reflecting a steady erosion of governmental institutions. Although an Anti-Corruption Commission came into being in 2004, it remained ineffective due to government control. So it is no wonder that corruption has become a common discourse in Bangladeshi life, with a very large number of political incumbents accused of having hands in it.

Unfortunately, a false sense of economic progress was created throughout the years of Awami League rule under Hasina Wazed. One after another, big infrastructure projects were undertaken which gave very little succour to the poverty-stricken people of Bangladesh. The urban unemployment rate is eight per cent in Bangladesh, and one-third of Bangladeshi university graduates have to remain jobless for a year or two. The Labour Force Survey of 2022 of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics revealed that while the national unemployment rate was 3.53 per cent, the youth unemployment rate was 8 per cent, with the share of unemployed youth in the country's total unemployment as high as 83.2 per cent.

It is no wonder then that a large number of these voters may have voted for the Jamaat not only in Dhaka but in medium and small towns as well.

Tariq Rahaman knows that the Jamaat-i-Islami is a formidable force in Bangladesh, and that is why he had gone out of his way to meet Shafiqur Rahaman, the Ameer of the Jamaat, after becoming the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister of Bangladesh knows better than anybody else that the Jamaat is economically so firmly entrenched that it may be difficult for him to run the country if the latter decides to come to the streets to oppose the BNP government's programs and policies.

Now let us look at the Jamaat's economic power. For this we have to rely on the seminal work of Abul Barkat, a professor of economics at Dhaka University, who is now in jail.

After long years Jamaat submitted its audited accounts for 2024. According to it, the JeI earned nearly 29 crores of Bangladeshi Taka, the highest among all the parties registered with the Bangladesh Election Commission. Out of it, the party spent more than 23 crores. Nearly five and a half crores of Bangladeshi taka remained with it. This is sufficient to give an idea about the party's financial strength.

Keeping aside Abul Barkat's own comments about the Jamaat-i-Islami, we may now turn to the facts he has given in his study report. According to it, the JeI is now almost everywhere in Bangladeshi society, like large financial institutions, household-level microcredit organisations, madrasas, mass media, information technology, big trading houses and non-governmental organisations.

Barkat calculated his estimates a few years back. But the situation remains the same now. According to Barkat Jamaat's net annual profit from the above-mentioned ventures, it amounts to $278 million, and the largest portion of it - 27.5 per cent- comes from banks, insurance and leasing companies. The NGOs contribute 18.7 per cent, 10.5 per cent comes from trade and commerce, 10.1 per cent from pharmaceutical industries and health care institutions, 9.4 per cent from the education sector, 8.8 per cent from real estate business, 7.3 per cent from transport and 7.7 per cent from media and information technology business.

This is sufficient to give a clear idea about the JeI's pervasive penetration into nearly all sectors of Bangladeshi society. It gives the party power to sustain itself during adverse periods, which it did during the rule by the Awami League when its registration was cancelled. The party's vast economic outreach makes sustenance for it a breeze. The Jamaat-controlled economy grows by 9 per cent per annum, while the state-controlled one grows by only 6 per cent. Abul Barkat has calculated that Jamaat transfers 10 percent of its annual profit for political activities, and the amount is enough to sustain 6 lakh cadres. Now readers can have a fair idea about the JeI's deep roots in Bangladeshi economy and society.

Tariq Rahaman cannot wish away all these ground realities. He is fortunate that the Jamiat-Ulema-e-Bangladesh did not join the JeI-led alliance and fought separately. This was a jolt to the Islamist bloc. Had it been otherwise, then Jamaat's number of seats might have increased, as the Jamiat Ulema has sliced away not an insignificant number of votes in a good number of constituencies.

On the whole, policymakers in New Delhi should put their heads together and formulate a well-thought-out Bangladesh policy, as a completely new political situation has arisen in the land of our eastern neighbour, a scenario which has never been seen before since the independence of Bangladesh.