World is warming up at a faster rate: COP29

Ranjan Kumar Padmapati

(The writer can be reached at rkpadmapati@yahoo.co.in)

The Lancet Report 2024 has just been published and highlights that ten of the fifteen indicators tracking climate-related health hazards found new threats for the survival of humanity due to record carbon dioxide emissions, warming up our planet. Adaptation is failing to keep pace with growing health threats. Fossil fuels, coal, oil, and gas are considered to be the largest contributors to climate change, accounting for 75% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 90% of carbon dioxide emissions. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions reached an all-time high of 37.2 Gt (gigatonnes) in 2023 from 2 Gt in 1900. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached 420 ppm (parts per million) in 2023 from a 278 ppm level in the year 1750. The year 2023 is reckoned as the warmest year so far, with persistent, devastating forest fires, storms, floods, droughts, and deadly, unbearable heat waves, diseases impacting directly on health, food security, and livelihood. The new high in the heat-trapping carbon dioxide concentration, along with other GHGs, is considered to be the dominant reason for earth’s scorching temperature. The Lancet Report found that annual mean surface temperature reached 1.45 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level in 2023, close to the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit set by the Paris Agreement.

A severe harmful effect noticed due to global warming is that a record of 61.3% of global land mass witnessed an increase in the average number of extreme precipitation days per year, leading to extreme floods, spreading diseases in the latest decade compared to the 1961 to 1990 baseline. In contrast, the percentage of land area affected by one, three, six, or twelve extreme drought months per year from 1950-2023 is also on the increase, making climate erratic in nature, unpredictable, and destroying natural ecosystems. The threats of climate-sensitive diseases like malaria, dengue, etc., expanded their transmission even to the high-altitude Himalayan regions, unknown before in low-temperature regions. Dengue cases reached an all-time high of 5 million cases worldwide in 2023. Transmission by Aedes albopictus rose by 46%, and Aedes aegypti rose by 11% over the last decade compared to 1951-1960. In 2023, it was observed that there were 50 days with temperatures reaching potentially dangerous levels for human health, affecting labor productivity and increasing the mortality rate of persons over 65 years of age globally. India faced similarly moderate to serious risk of heat stress of 100 days per year, which resulted in 181 billion potential labor hours lost, which is more than 50% of the 1990-1999 level. Dengue potential is increased by 85% during 2014-2023 compared to 1951-1960. The world heat-related mortality rate increased by 167% compared to the 1990s. As a result of hotter coastal waters, vibriosis (bacteria) cases reached a high of 692,000 cases in 2023. Heat exposure is limiting labor productivity, recorded as a loss of 512 billion potential hours globally in 2023. This is a 49% increase compared to the 1990-1999 average. According to Dr. Priyadarshana Dharma Rajan, climate change directly impacts the genetic diversity of pollinator species, which will reduce food security considerably. Increase in heat exposure induces sleep disorder affecting mental health and physical activity. In 2023, there was a record of 6% in hours of sleep lost compared to the period between 1986 and 2005. This has a special significance as 40% of Indians work in outdoor agricultural fields, reducing productivity levels considerably. Hot and dry climate triggers dust storm; noticed a 31% increase in the number of people exposed to dangerously high levels of particulate matter concentration between 2018 and 2022, compared to 2003 and 2007. Apart from the increase in GHGs linked directly with the production of energy, 182 million hectares of green forests, which work as the lungs of the earth, neutralizing emissions of carbon dioxide, have been lost during the period 2016-2022, disturbing the natural carbon cycle. Ocean and land absorb nearly half of the carbon dioxide emissions. Absorption of carbon dioxide (30%) by the ocean is gradually on the decline because of warming and acidification. Climate-specific health programmers to deliver health services or build climate resilience to anticipate, respond to, and recover from health impacts of climate-related shocks and stress are new requirements.

It is a matter of great concern that the World Carbon Budget for the year 2024 projects fossil-related carbon dioxide emissions of 37.4 billion tonnes and is up by 0.85% compared to that of 2023. Chief polluting countries are mentioned below: China with 31% topping the list, the USA 13%, India 8%, and the EU 13%. Projected emissions of high-polluting countries are China—12 BTs (billion tonnes), the USA—4.9 BTs, and India—3.2 BTs. Emissions from coal, oil, and gas in 2024 would be above the 2023 level by 0.25%, 0.9%, and 2.45%, respectively.

The consumption of electricity, which is on an exponential flight to meet the new energy demand every year, now stands at 620 (EJ) Exa-Joules (10 to the power of 18), demanding the burning of more and more amounts of fossil fuels. In India too, fossil fuel burning was increased by 8% in 2023. Though the demand for gas remained steady, coal consumption was up by 1.6%, and demand for oil increased by 2% to reach a new high of 100 million barrels per day for the first time. The KPMG found that total wind and solar energy climbed by 13% in 2023, generating 4,748 terawatts but at a slower pace to offset the warming phenomena. The world energy consumption and production contribute 2/3 of global energy-related emissions. Eighty-one percent of the global energy system still relies on fossil fuels, at the same percentage level as it was 30 years ago. It is surprising that 27% of the countries spent more on fossil fuel subsidies than on healthcare. In 2023, emissions linked with energy generation increased by 1.1% compared to 2022.

The silver lining is that global clean energy generation reached a high of 10.5% in 2021, and clean energy investment is 1.7 trillion US dollars in 2023, creating 13.7 million jobs in 2022. Another positive sign of combined all-out efforts is the decline of outdoor PM2.5 particulate matter emissions-driven deaths by 6.9% during 2016-2021 by phasing out a little of fossil fuel burning. The grim reality is that the decarbonization rate was only 1.02% in 2023 against the requirement of a twenty times faster rate to limit the temperature at 1.5 degrees Celsius. To restrict even the higher limit of 2 degrees Celsius as decided in the Paris Agreement, the requirement rate is a 6.9% reduction per year. Currently, the world is on a trajectory of doubling the limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius; the target of 45% emission reduction by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050 is a distant dream, waiting for the COP29 outcome, which will end on 22nd November.