Facing persecution, Hindu voters could emerge as ‘trump card’ in Bangladesh elections

New Delhi: In democratic societies, minority voters often emerge as a decisive factor in elections when they constitute between five to 15 per cent of the electorate. Their voting preferences can significantly influence election outcomes, determining which party ascends to power. This phenomenon can be observed in countries like the United States, France, India, and the United Kingdom.

In the United States, minority voters — including African Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans — make up nearly 30 per cent of the electorate. Their support was instrumental in Barack Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012. Similarly, in India, where minority voters comprise approximately 15 per cent of the population, their influence is particularly strong in states like Bihar and West Bengal. The electoral fortunes of parties such as the Indian National Congress, Trinamool Congress, and Samajwadi Party are significantly shaped by Muslim voter support. In the UK, minorities of South Asian, African, and Caribbean descent make up about 14 per cent of the total population. Historically, the Labour Party has attracted strong support from these communities. Meanwhile, in France, where the Muslim minority accounts for around 9 per cent of the population, their votes have become crucial in presidential elections, influencing candidates like Emmanuel Macron. These examples underscore the decisive role of minority voters in democratic elections worldwide.

In Bangladesh, Hindu voters hold a similar significance in shaping election outcomes. Historically, they have played a key role in every national election. As of 2022, Hindus make up around eight per cent of Bangladesh’s total population or approximately 13 million people (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2022). While their percentage of the total population has declined over the past five decades, their absolute numbers have increased. In 1974, Hindus comprised 13.5 per cent of the population, a figure that has now fallen to 7.95 per cent. Census data from 1981 recorded the Hindu population at 12.1 per cent, which declined to 10.5 per cent in 1991, 9.2 per cent in 2001, 8.5 per cent in 2011, and 7.95 per cent in 2022. However, in terms of absolute numbers, the Hindu population has grown steadily: from 9.6 million in 1974 to 13.5 million in 2022.

Traditionally, a large segment of the Hindu electorate has supported the Awami League, viewing it as a party committed to secularism and minority protection. However, even under Awami League rule, incidents of Hindu persecution, land grabbing, and communal violence have persisted. The party has long campaigned on promises to uphold secularism and safeguard minority rights, leveraging its role in Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation war, led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, which was fought to establish a secular state. (IANS)

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