Signals from Myanmar 

The military-dominated government in Myanmar is giving out signals of a closer alignment with China. This does not augur well for India. The Communist country has remained a primary investor and diplomatic shield for Myanmar since the 2021 coup and has been offering crucial support to the ruling State Administration Council (SAC) amidst economic crises. This deepening alignment of Myanmar with China poses significant strategic, security, and economic challenges to India, in the process directly threatening New Delhi’s Act East Policy as well as border security. With Myanmar increasingly relying on Beijing, China has been obviously expanding its influence, particularly in the Rakhine State through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, allowing direct access to the Indian Ocean and posing a threat to limit India’s regional footprint. Both sides drive this deeper alignment on a broader scale. First and foremost, there are strategic needs. Myanmar needs legitimacy and economic support, while China intends to establish its control over the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and thus access the Indian Ocean via the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port. As far as economic dependence is concerned, despite widespread instability, China’s investments in Myanmar continue, and this has acted as a key mediator with northern ethnic armed groups. Looking from the geopolitical angle, one finds that this alliance allows China to bypass the congested Strait of Malacca and strengthens its influence over its southern neighbour. Again, since the Western sanctions continue, the Myanmar junta is compelled to increasingly lean on Beijing for survival, likely deepening the country’s, and the region’s, strategic vulnerability. Strategic analysts have pointed out that the developments suggest a pivot where the military junta, facing severe internal conflict and isolation, is prioritizing its survival through alignment with China. The appointment of personnel who are considered to be close to Beijing indicates a shift away from a strictly non-aligned foreign policy. Increased Chinese influence in Myanmar complicates the strategic position of India as well as ASEAN, potentially leading to further economic and security instability along border areas. This tightening relationship appears geared towards securing long-term Chinese interests, with the potential of making Myanmar a “client state” which is heavily dependent on Beijing for economic viability and political legitimacy. As far as the Northeastern region is concerned, the increasing China-Myanmar nexus has increased instability along the frontier. The influx of refugees and displaced soldiers from Myanmar, particularly into Mizoram and Manipur, poses severe logistical and security risks. Furthermore, ethnic armed organizations in Myanmar may be influenced by China, potentially enabling anti-India militant activities.