Trump Strikes Oil Deal With Pakistan, Snubs India Amid Tariff Row

In a provocative move, US President Donald Trump announced a new trade and oil development deal with Pakistan, while simultaneously taking aim at India over tariffs and continued Russian oil imports.

"Maybe Pakistan Will Sell Oil to India"
Trump, speaking via his Truth Social platform, accused India and China of "funding" the war in Ukraine by purchasing Russian crude oil despite Western sanctions. He mocked India's energy strategy, remarking that “maybe they (Pakistan) will sell oil to India,” following his announcement of plans to develop Pakistan's “massive” oil reserves.

The details of the US-Pakistan deal remain vague, but it reportedly involves granting drilling rights to an American firm. Pakistan's government stated the agreement would lead to a reduction in US tariffs on its exports, though it has not yet specified the revised rates.

Impact on India Likely to be Minimal
Despite the political posturing, energy analysts believe the deal poses little threat to India. India has proven oil reserves of 4.8 billion barrels (as of 2016) and a far more developed refining and extraction industry. India produced over 600,000 barrels per day (BPD) in February 2025, compared to Pakistan’s 68,000 BPD.

India also imports nearly five million BPD to meet demand, while Pakistan’s import figure remains under 200,000 BPD. The scale of the Indian energy market and its established global ties mean that any US-Pakistan oil partnership is unlikely to disrupt India’s energy security.