Skirt lengths, heel heights, and economic recessions

Jilmil Jonak Kashyap

(Miranda House, University of Delhi)

The state of the economy impacts every aspect of one’s life. This includes everything from food and housing to clothing choices. Currently, the threat of recession looms over many nations in the West, and fashion, like everything else, has been affected.

A recession is a significant and persistent decline in economic activity. One of the most impactful recessions in history was the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009. Before this, fashion was loud. Bright colours, heavy jewellery, and over-embellishment dominated the market. The Y2K aesthetic was in full swing. The recession hit the fashion industry hard. Millions lost their jobs and cut back on their spending. This meant that retailers struggled to keep their stores open. In this situation, brands realised that it was time for a change. There was a need for minimalism. Soon, muted colours, simple silhouettes, and staple pieces gained popularity. People were conservative with their money and chose to buy fewer items that could be re-worn. The style of this era was reminiscent of the simplicity of the 1990s.

This wasn’t the first time fashion trends were impacted by an economic crisis. The Great Depression began with the 1929 stock market crash and lasted till 1939. At its peak, nearly 13 million people were unemployed in America. The short dresses and boyish silhouette of the Roaring Twenties in America evolved into a more conservative style with longer hemlines and strong shoulders. Inexpensive fabrics and jewellery rose in popularity. Women refashioned old clothes into new styles. Cinema became an escape for many. Stores replicated the dresses worn on the silver screen, but at a fraction of the cost.

The Hemline

Index

The Hemline Index states that the length of skirts correlates with market conditions. The theory suggests that skirt lengths get shorter during good economic times and longer during economic downturns. Marjolein van Baardwijk and Philip Hans Franses published a study titled “The Hemline and the Economy: Is There Any Match?” in 2010. They collected monthly data on the hemline from 1921 to 2009 and found that the economic cycle leads the hemline length with a lag of about three years. It is believed that during good economic times, women wished to show off their stockings. An example would be the flappers of the 1920s. Additionally, textiles would become more expensive during an economic boom, and designers would be more inclined to make shorter skirts. This index is, however, not reliable and is not trusted by many as a good predictor of economic shifts.

The High Heel Index

Trevor Davis, a former consumer products expert at IBM, came up with a theory that connected the height of heels with economic prosperity. This is called the high heel index. Heel heights would inch up during economic downturns, but if the economy remained in a recessionary state for more than a few months, the heights went down. The median height of heels peaked at seven inches in 2009 during the recession and fell to two inches in 2011. The low-heeled shoes of the flappers in the 1920s evolved into high-heeled pumps and platforms during the Great Depression.

The rich are largely unaffected by economic downturns. Although, they tend to opt for more simple silhouettes and minimal jewellery at these times in order to not draw attention to emselves, There was pushback against items with noticeable logos in 2008. Flaunting your wealth during an economic crisis is not a good look, and the rich are well aware of that. At present, many red carpet looks do not feature any jewellery. The emergence of trends like quiet luxury and a clean girl aesthetic speaks volumes about the current shift in style.

Androgyny is a trend that makes fashion more attainable in difficult times. Clothes that can be worn by both men and women are a better investment at a time when people are shopping less. Designers, too, are able to make a collection at a lower cost. Gender-fluid fashion has been on the rise since the COVID-19 pandemic and is likely to be even more popular in the future.

In the end, hemlines and heel heights might not be able to predict the future. But they indicate a shift in the mindset of the people. It shows how powerful fashion is as a form of self-expression. Economic changes have historically forced fashion to be innovative. It has forced the industry and its consumers to adapt to changes. And fashion has always succeeded in doing so.