The turbulent political landscape of Nepal

Dipak Kurmi

(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com.)

The rise of Rabi Lamichhane and his Rashtra Swatantra Party (RSP) in Nepalese politics has been nothing short of remarkable. Despite being a newcomer to the political arena, the party secured the fourth-largest position in its debut election, with the bell as its symbol. Lamichhane, who currently serves as the Home Minister, has captured the imagination of many Nepalese who see him as a potential future Prime Minister. However, Lamichhane’s journey has been marred by controversies and allegations of fraud. Ironically, while his party claims to champion the eradication of corruption and development, Lamichhane himself is facing an investigation for alleged financial irregularities in a cooperative fund for the second time. Previously, he had to step down due to issues related to dual citizenship and passports.

The ongoing investigation has led to a political standoff, with the Nepali Congress party demanding an impartial parliamentary probe and Lamichhane’s resignation by March 31. Lamichhane has denied the allegations during questioning by a panel of lawmakers. However, both Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda and former Prime Minister KP Oli have ruled out the probe and his resignation, adding to the political tension. Despite its lack of a clear ideological orientation or macro vision, the RSP has managed to capture the attention of the electorate by focusing on development and anti-corruption rhetoric. As the drama unfolds, it remains to be seen how Lamichhane navigates these challenges and whether his political aspirations will be derailed by the ongoing investigations.

The rise of Rabi Lamichhane, a former television anchor known for his unwavering stance against corruption, has captivated the nation’s imagination. His charismatic persona and youthful energy have propelled him to the forefront of Nepalese politics, with many seeing him as a rising star destined for greater heights. According to a high-ranking member of the Janata Samajwadi Party, part of the current five-party coalition government, Lamichhane finds himself in an enviable position, metaphorically holding “sweets in both hands.” This idiom suggests that he has become a sought-after political figure, with the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) rumoured to have offered him the coveted position of prime minister in an attempt to break the coalition and regain power.

However, Lamichhane’s ascent has not been without controversy. Allegations of misconduct have emerged, raising questions about whether he will temporarily step aside until investigations, if ordered, are completed. The situation has the potential to escalate into another political crisis, underscoring the delicate balance of power in the nation’s political landscape. Despite these challenges, the crusade against corruption remains an unwavering priority. Lamichhane’s rise to prominence has been fueled by his unwavering commitment to this cause, resonating with a population yearning for transparency and accountability in governance. As the nation watches with bated breath, the outcome of this political drama will undoubtedly shape the course of Nepal’s future.

Nepal’s political landscape has been marred by a series of high-profile corruption scandals, implicating prominent figures across various parties and sectors. The arrests and subsequent release on bail of influential leaders like KB Mahara, a former Maoist leader and confidante of Prachanda, in the 61 kg gold scam, and Balkrishna Khand, a former Nepali Congress defense minister, in the Bhutan refugee scam, have raised eyebrows. The alleged involvement of Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, a Maoist leader, in the Bhutan refugee case further adds to the controversy.

The corruption allegations extend beyond political circles, with Min Bahadur Gurung, the owner of the renowned Bhat Bhateni department store chain, recently finding himself behind bars. Even Nepal’s sole billionaire and Nepali Congress lawmaker, Binod Chaudhary, faced scrutiny over the Bansbari land scam, while his brother Arun experienced a brief stint in custody. Whispers of impropriety have also reached the highest echelons of power, with allegations linking two former prime ministers to the Lalita Niwas land scam and rumours circulating about another former premier’s involvement in a tea estate in Jhapa. Amidst this climate of alleged corruption, both Prachanda and Lamichhane, prominent political figures, have taken a strong stance against graft, vehemently campaigning for accountability and transparency. Their efforts to tackle corruption have gained significant traction as the nation grapples with the fallout from these high-profile scandals.

Nepal’s relations with China appear to be experiencing a phase of cautious navigation, despite the perceived pro-China stance of the current government. While the return of the Left alliance to power was celebrated in Beijing, with Communist leader K.P. Sharma Oli asserting that the change was brought about by their own efforts rather than Chinese interference, the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the utilisation of the Rs 60 billion pledged by President Xi Jinping during his 2019 visit have been moving at a glacial pace.

During a recent nine-day visit to Beijing, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Narayan Kaji Shreshtha, accompanied by UML’s Bishnu Poudyel, met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. The two sides reaffirmed their commitment to “very soon sign the BRI implementation plan,” a necessary procedural step for executing projects under the Chinese framework. However, this process has been marked by hesitation on both sides, stemming from the need to define the funding modality. Kathmandu’s preference lies with aid, grants, or concessional loans from China rather than commercial loans. This stance can be traced back to the initial stages of Nepal’s engagement with the BRI, when the number of proposed projects was whittled down from 35 to 9 under the tenure of the former Foreign Minister Prakash Mahat, who signed the BRI Framework Agreement in 2017.

The cautious approach adopted by both China and Nepal underscores the complexities involved in navigating the intricate geopolitical landscape and the need to strike a delicate balance between economic aspirations and fiscal prudence.

While Nepal has embraced China’s Global Development Initiative, it has steered clear of Beijing’s Global Security and Global Civilization Initiatives. After a prolonged period of deliberation spanning four years, Kathmandu eventually acquiesced to the Millennium Challenge Corporation-NNepal Compact, an initiative spearheaded by the United States, in 2022. The nation’s participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative is widely perceived as a counterbalance to the influence exerted by the Millennium Challenge Corporation.

The geopolitical landscape surrounding Nepal has undergone a significant transformation. Historically, the country’s strategic position was encapsulated in the famous dictum by Prithvi Narayan Shah, which likened Nepal to a yam caught between two stones, referring to its influential neighbours, India and China. However, contemporary Nepali strategists have modified this analogy to reflect the emerging reality, envisioning Nepal as a yam sandwiched between three stones: India, China, and the United States. Until around 2010, the U.S. Embassy in Delhi would defer to India’s lead on matters concerning Nepal, acknowledging the latter’s traditional sphere of influence. Nevertheless, this dynamic has evolved over time as the United States has asserted a more pronounced presence and assertiveness in the region, potentially reshaping the delicate balance of power and influence in Nepal’s neighbourhood.

For the past two years, my place of residence has been Lame Ahal, a village predominantly inhabited by the Gurung ethnic group, situated below the Kathmandu-Pokhara Highway. This highway, originally constructed by Chinese engineers, is currently undergoing a major expansion project to increase its capacity to four lanes. Unfortunately, this construction work has resulted in a significant amount of airborne particulate matter as well as the generation of muddy slurry during periods of inclement weather, causing considerable frustration and discontent among the local populace.

The construction of infrastructure in Pokhara has been a sluggish endeavour, with Chinese engineers from the Wayuan Highway and Bridge Construction Company collaborating with Nepalese aborers. However, the region’s recent meteorological upheaval has cast a shadow over their efforts. For a prolonged period spanning two years, the residents of Pokhara had been grappling with a severe drought, leading to the depletion of water sources in numerous villages. Unexpectedly, last week, the Pokhara valley was inundated by torrential downpours, unleashing chaos upon the local transportation networks, both on the roads and in the air. This untimely deluge is a stark manifestation of the profound impacts of climate change, a phenomenon that has disrupted the predictable patterns of the seasons.

The pervasive and deep-rooted anti-India sentiment in Nepal appears to be an ingrained phenomenon that defies easy resolution. During a recent visit to Bhat Bhateni, a casual observation about the prevalence of Chinese products elicited a pointed response from the salesperson, who remarked that “India does not give us anything.” Furthermore, on my daily walks across the Seti River, derogatory terms like ‘thug’ are occasionally hurled in reference to India, highlighting the compulsive and imagined nature of this animosity. This deep-seated bias towards the neighbouring nation persists, even as the political landscape shifts, with Prachanda hinting at potential coalition realignments. The enduring nature of this sentiment suggests that it will continue to cast a long shadow over Nepal’s relations with India, posing a significant challenge for policymakers and diplomats alike.

Through this manoeuvre, the Prime Minister aims to maintain the allegiance of his coalition partners. The Nepali Congress is endeavouring to detach the Janata Samajbadi Party and the Unified Socialists, led by Upendra Yadav and Madhav Nepal, respectively—the latter once bearing the moniker “Madhav India.” Their objective is to resuscitate the Democratic Alliance while keeping the existing coalition on tenterhooks, thereby perpetuating an atmosphere of instability in Nepal. This delicate balancing act seeks to consolidate the Prime Minister’s position while simultaneously preventing the formation of a formidable opposition front.