IIT-Mandi predicts weakening of monsoon by 2100

Mandi (Himachal Pradesh): and have predicted a weakening strength of the phenomenon by 2100. The algorithm will also factor in information about global climate phenomena such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation, and can access periodicity of switching between strong and weak monsoon years.

The research was undertaken by Sarita Azad, Assistant Professor, School of Basic Sciences, along with her research scholars Pravat Jena, Sourabh Garg and Nikhil Ragha. They studied the changes in the periodicity of monsoon rainfall and used the data to predict periodicity in future. The Indian summer monsoon, the annual cycle of winds coupled with a strong cycle of rains, is undoubtedly India’s lifeline.

While the monsoon itself is a stable phenomenon, arriving almost like clockwork every year, the short-term fluctuations in annual rainfall are unpredictable and pose a great challenge. Azad and her team developed algorithms that can accurately detect intense rainfall events, taking into consideration the triennial oscillation period and other factors such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation. For this purpose, Jena has developed an algorithm to analyse the changes in periodicity of the monsoon. It predicts a decreasing intensity of rainfall in most parts of the country. (IANS)

Researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology-Mandi (IIT-Mandi) have developed an algorithm to process 100 years of data of the Indian monsoon rainfall

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