Food Front: Not That Rosy at All

Dr B K Mukhopadhyay

(The Writer, a noted Management Economist, an International Commentator on Business and Economic Affairs, is attached to Management Programme meant for the Defense Personnel. He can be reached at m.bibhas@gmail.com. Opinion expressed is personal.)

Can we remain satisfied with the current goings? A big ‘no’. As per ‘Global report on food crisis’ in 2017, almost 124 million people across 51 countries and territories faced crisis levels of acute food insecurity or worse and required urgent humanitarian action. In 2016 the population in need of urgent action was estimated at 108 million across 48 countries.

World food production has been assessed to rise by 70 per cent by 2050 to cater for growth in population of more than 30 per cent. Can we achieve? Difficult but not impossible indeed!!

It is beyond any shade of doubt that global food security is one of the most pressing societal issues of our time. Though advances in agricultural technology and expertise will significantly increase the food production potential of many countries / regions, yet these advances will not increase production fast enough to meet the demands of the planet’s even faster-growing human population.

FAO is right in pointing out that crises become protracted through a wide range of intertwined shocks and stressors. Food insecurity in 2017 was driven by continuing conflict and insecurity throughout Africa, the Middle East and in parts of South Asia; persistent drought in the Horn of Africa; floods in Asia; and hurricanes in Latin America and the Caribbean. Famine was declared in areas of war-torn South Sudan, now in its fifth year of conflict; Yemen and Syrian Arab Republic were among the most concerning humanitarian emergencies. Changes to the current response structure are needed to find sustainable solutions to food insecurity.

Whither Global Food Front?

Agriculture in this 21st century is all set to undergo significant demands, arising largely from the need to increase the global food enterprise, while adjusting and contributing to climate change [adaptation and mitigation] - global food insecurity has to provide structure to effect achievement of this critically needed roadmap.

Scenario the latest: FAO has lowered its April forecast of global paddy production in 2012 by 7.8 million tonnes following a worsening of the outlook in Asia. Production forecasts were reduced for Cambodia, the Chinese Province of Taiwan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea and Nepal, all of which may see a production drop in 2012. However, the global body on the farm sector noted that the 2012 output forecasts in China (Mainland), Indonesia, the United Republic of Tanzania, Thailand and the United States were all scaled up. India produced a record 104.32 million tonnes of rice in the 2011-12 crop year (July-June) against 95.98 million tonnes of the grain in the 2010-11 crop year.

Then what is the options right now?

And then what are the options/ alternatives since tinkering around the present models only succeeded globally to an extent - leaving the gaps uncovered? Food aid to hunger though has a vital humanitarian role to play in countries which require assistance, yet is not a sustainable solution. One has to go deeper to explore how a food deficit country [e.g. Ethiopia, with more than 10 million people dependent on food assistance] can address its problems by relieving the food insecurity of other such countries.

It has been a fact that population pressures would continue to tip the balance against proper land and water management in many developing countries. While agricultural production is critical for any form of sustainable future, focusing on the agricultural sector alone without regard for other important factors which influence food production is not the right way. But here lies the problem with the developing block. Population programmes require to be integrated into overall development objectives and be linked to other resource issues so that comprehensive development turns into reality. With falling per caput food production and resource degradation, the strategic plan is to be incorporated with population concerns [viz. population growth, distribution and rural-urban migration patterns incorporate population]. For that matter community development strategy which integrates essential social services as well as production resources is welcome.

Strategy Matters

Sustainable development strategies [encompassing soil erosion and impoverishment, deforestation, falling agricultural output, and poor water management] has to gain ground - also be implemented coupled with rural agricultural extension schemes which provide credit, seeds, fertilizers and advice to poorer farmers.

It is in a word - optimal resource management that is capable of increasing crop yields, preventing land degradation, while providing sustainable livelihoods for millions of rural poor. National population programmes, on the other hand, should include comprehensive and accessible maternal and child health care programmes and family planning services not only to reduce the size of families and improve the health and well-being of the entire community, but increasing also the crucially needed food production ensuring protection of the environment while easing the burdens of the poor.

FAO has rightly noted that it is not only financial resources that are needed. Beyond the factors that exacerbate the current crisis, there is a whole series of fundamental problems that need to be resolved, in particular how aid is channeled and how to make it reach smallholder farmers effectively, as well as reform of the world food security governance system for more coherence in the action of governments and development partners, the share of national budgets dedicated to agriculture and private sector investment.

At this very juncture in order to avoid the unpalatable consequences of widespread hunger and even starvation in the years and decades to come, a firm commitment is needed to increase crop yields of land area, nutrients applied, and at the same time amount of water used.

The UN Secretary-General António Guterres, rightly commented that…better understand the challenge. It is now up to us to take action to meet the needs of those facing the daily scourge of hunger and to tackle its root causes.