Global Agri Situation: Not That Smooth and Stable

Dr BK Mukhopadhyay

(A noted management economist and an international commentator on business and economic affairs.

He may be reached at m.bibhas@gmail.com)

Let us start with what the global food monitor says:

The FAO’s Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition: Europe and Central Asia 2018 analyzes a wealth of country data on dietary energy supply, undernourishment and nutrition indicators, such as stunting and wasting, anaemia, overweight and obesity, and the effects of the shifts in people’s diets. FAO says: more than 14 million adults and some 4.7 million children in Europe and Central Asia suffer from severe food insecurity.

The estimates reflect that some 2.1 percent of the region’s total population of nearly one billion was exposed to severe food insecurity in 2015-2017. “While the prevalence of severe food insecurity in Europe and Central Asia at around 2 percent is far lower than the world average of 9.2 percent, it is still a cause for concern especially in those countries with persisting hunger and malnutrition,”

Though in the last decades, the region as a whole has achieved significant progress in fighting food insecurity, yet since 2014 the decreasing trend on the prevalence of undernourishment has been stagnating at 6 percent, and in 2016 and 2017 the number of undernourished people in Central Asia has been slowly growing in absolute terms.

The Initial findings across the region show inequality between women and men in the prevalence of severe food insecurity. In the Caucasus, Central Asia, and European Commonwealth of Independent States countries, adult women were found with a higher rate of severe food insecurity than men. Significant differences in nutrition levels were also observed between urban and rural, remote areas and the report points to underlying economic and social inequality factors.

Very significantly the report assesses countries’ progress toward the Sustainable Development Goal which targets for achieving Zero Hunger and improved nutrition by 2030. It also reviews policy measures and solutions that countries apply or could apply to address all four dimensions of food security - availability, access, utilization and stability - and nutrition.

The Reality Undeniable

As the matter stands at this juncture, it is clear that in the first half of this century, when the world’s population grows to around 9.15 billion, global demand for food, feed and fibre will nearly double, while increasingly, crops may also be used for bio-energy and other industrial purposes. New and traditional demand for agricultural produce will go on putting increasing pressure on already scarce agricultural resources. And while agriculture will be forced to compete for land and water with sprawling urban settlements, it will also be required to serve on other major fronts: adapting to and contributing to the mitigation of climate change, helping preserve natural habitats, protecting endangered species and maintaining a high level of biodiversity. It is also clear that in most regions fewer people will be living in rural areas and even fewer will be farmers, who, in turn, will need new technologies to grow more from less land, with fewer hands de facto.

Not a Good Going!

Clearly if the current trends are of any indication, the food and agricultural policy system itself is in disarray.

Non availability of quality and cost effective inputs, low efficiency of inputs use and fast deteriorating soil health and water resources remain as the critical concerns. Agriculture requires a big push and so as to realise the much coveted high growth rate vis-à-vis food security.

We are really entering into a difficult stage globally and nationally in agriculture. Dwindling food stocks and rising prices reflect the reality- the very concern, which, in turn, must be given top priority. Tackling the threat of climate change and reducing yield gap are the crying needs, among others. In many of the current analyses it is being pointed out that Thailand becomes one of the gainers out of these upward trends in food prices as this country produces surplus food gains. But what is the gain emerging from this trend for the Farmer – their plight remains more or less same and it is the traders who are gaining most of the prices that is obtained.

No Snap Shot Prescription Please

The real challenge that comes in the way of making agriculture an instrument of development lays outside agriculture – managing the political risks (political economy of agricultural policies and simultaneously strengthening governance for the implementation of these policies. The crucial need is there to share the ideas, experiences and expertise, setting up of a common seed bank, joint research centre, surveillances and early warning system between the nations. Investment and regional cooperation in research and development must be at the top of regional meets be it north or south. Building up partnership with the scientists and research bodies have now become more essential than ever before. And then go for rapid technological innovation.

The other side of the reality should not be denied as well. So far fast-emerging economies like India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, among others, are concerned the fact remains that the ongoing trend is steadily moving in terms of registering quicker growth in agricultural productivity. Good going - growth and modern farm practices and inclusive technologies are being implemented in order to foster the rural growth process. It is also a fact that cellular technologies, wireless communication networks, as well as GIS based agro – software technologies, are reaching rural India to disseminate vital information and updates on weather, farming technologies, fertilisers, livestock, commodity prices as well as stock markets.

Still, a huge number of villages do not have access to advanced farming technologies and interactive communication networks, not to speck of the pace of rural electrification and clean drinking water availability is it not the appropriate time to broaden the sight and look at vital aspects – re-identifying policy dimensions and initiative; capacity building through PPP, individual initiatives and joint ventures; boosting agri-business and agri-marketing; GIS mapping and harvesting trends; mitigating climatic change hazards; precision farming – optimum utilization of resources; lending heavily on most modern agri-practices; micro-finance and micro credit and attaching top importance to food security?

Time is ripe for a more well-knitted coordinated actions so as to : initiate inter-sectoral-linkages; progressive decision making, information sharing and performance improvement; capacity building; creating more opportunities for partnership building, development reorganization and capacity enhancement for the rural stakeholders.