Will the CAB be tabled on Wednesday?: Letters to The EDITOR

Will the CAB be tabled on Wednesday?

It is natural to conceive that a well-meaning person who has a feel for the recent political history of Assam in the North-eastern part of the country must have an inquisitiveness to know about the performance of the mainstream political parties that are generally known to have an impact on the State politics as ruling parties or opposition parties, in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Reference has been made about the major constituents of the coalition government in Assam under Sarbananda Sonowal, the BJP and the AGP, as well as the opposition outfits, the Congress and Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF.

Although no dates have been announced for the general election, it is not a long way off. Announcement in this regard is likely to be made in a brief while from now. In fact, whenever, the elections are held, at this stage it will be an uphill task to make a correct appraisal and come to a conclusion of if the saffron party will be able to improve upon its performance this time from the 2014 polls when it won as many as seven out of a total 14 Lok Sabha seats. In view of the spectre of the political stasis stalking Assam with the ongoing strong protest and movement being spearheaded by a number of organizations including the powerful AASU, the KMSS, the NESO almost across the State, against the Narendra Modi-led BJP government's firm move to push through the contentious Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, (CAB) 2016 in the parliament. This political uncertainty is what exactly is standing as a stumbling block on the way of making a somewhat correct and clear assessment of a pre-poll scene in the State. Indeed, by all accounts, it seems a clear picture is likely to emerge if the Bill is passed in the Rajya Sabha. But so far, there is little likelihood of the Bill being passed by the ruling party largely because of two major reasons: one is lobbying in New Delhi against the move of the Modi government to ensure its passage in the Upper House by a joint delegation from Assam comprising the leaders of the AASU, AJYCP and KMSS. And, the second reason is its lack of majority in the House.

However, according to a poll analyst, the government may try to get it passed in the Rajya Sabha on Wednesday, being its last working. But what is the damaging aspect of the whole story is that the Bill, if at all passed, may defeat the very purpose of updating the National Registration of Citizens (NRC), 1951, and will render the Assam Accord redundant, besides close to Rs 12,00 crore already spent since 2013 when the entire updating process started under the supervision of the Supreme Court, will go waste. In contrast, it may lead to a vigorous movement against its passage in the State and the Northeast India. What the indigenous people are far more concerned about is that the CAB, if passed, may even legalize the stay of those Hindus from Bangladesh who have crossed over to India after December 31, 2014 being the cut-off year under the CAB on their appeal.

However, the saffron party is in fearful anxiety after its failure to win in the five States of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram in the recently-held Assembly polls with its dismal performance. What had been more surprising are its serious debacles in the three Hindi-heartland States – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh – where it had a solid support-base. This is why, the desperate attempt by the BJP to pass the contentious Bill to woo the voters in Assam, evidently to notch up Lok Sabha seats. One gratifying aspect for the ruling party is that it won the last December rural polls in Assam, though it was a marginal lead over the Congress. This, however, does reveal that winning Lok Sabha seats in the State will not be a cakewalk for it.

But, we all are aware of the fact that in a multi-party system as ours, there is no permanent friend or foe in electoral politics, the saffron party like other political entities, well knows. So, if and when the very need of saving parties from being marginalized or reduced to spent force or protecting self-interests, arises, many leaders, irrespective of party affiliations and ideologies, can come together and help a government for the purpose. It will hardly be any surprise if the BJP's allies such as Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, JD(U) and others which have opposed the Bill finally support the government in ensuring its smooth passing. Let us see how things take shape at the end of the day.

Dwaipayan Dasgupta,

Guwahati.