Lok Sabha Election: Triangular Contest; Picture Still Hazy

GUWAHATI: This time around, the fight for the Kokrajhar Lok Sabha seat is triangular. The picture, however, is curiously hazy.

The fight in the constituency is among the BJP-AGP-backed BPF candidate Pramila Rani Brahma, the ABSU-NDFB(P)-backed UPPL candidate UG Brahma and the independent candidate Naba Sarania. Even as the picture, insofar as win is concerned, is still hazy in the constituency, the battle line has been distinctly drawn.

This time around, the electorate in the constituency is set to behave unusually, generating curiosity among poll analysts. What is glaringly visible in the constituency is the split of Bodo votes between Pramila Rani Brahma and her rival UPPL candidate UG Brahma. With AIUDF president Badruddin Ajmal lending his support to UPPL candidate UG Brahma in the constituency, there is every possibility of a large chunk of Muslim votes being transferred to UG Brahma. If that really happens, it can be a real threat to the ruling alliance candidate, Pramila Rani Brahma. The campaign for Pramila Rani Brahma, on the other hand, has been quite massive in the constituency. BPF president Hagrama Mohilary has been campaigning for her on a war footing.

Over the years, since the Congress, the BJP and the AGP did not have organizational bases in the Kokrajhar Lok Sabha seat, these three parties had to extend their support to independent candidates. However, with the Congress fielding Shabdaram Rabha as its candidate in the constituency this time, he is set to cut a chunk of non-Bodo votes that went to Naba Sarania in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll. From that count, even if Rabha is not among the main three contestants, he can be a threat to Sarania. With the Congress, the AGP and the BJP having their own or their alliance candidates in the constituency, the non-Bodo votes are not supposed to be block votes for Sarania, this time around. Split in the Bodo votes, on the other hand, is a threat to both the Brahmas. When viewed from that angle, the three – Sarania and the two Brahmas – seem to be more or less equally poised. Of late, the AKRSU (All Koch Rajbongshi Students’ Union) lent their support to Sarania, making the contest even more curious.

Campaigning for Pramila Rani Brahma at Bijni and Basugaon, Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal on Wednesday appealed to the voters in the constituency to come out in unison from the ‘ mean non-Bodo and Bodo politics’ in the interest of building a strong society.

Significantly, all the three candidates claim to win the seat with almost equal confidence. The picture is really hazy.

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