NDA performance in NE

The BJP and its allies have achieved significant success across the Northeastern region. The saffron party had, immediately after registering a thumping victory in the Assembly election in Assam in 2016 announced a ‘Congress-mukta Northeast’ campaign. The responsibility of accomplishing this mission was entrusted on Himanta Biswa Sarma, who had only one year before that shifted allegiance from the Congress to the BJP and had played a very crucial role in ensuring the party’s win in Assam. Sarma is also credited with the success of working out an alliance of the BJP with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and Ganashakti, which also contributed immensely in keeping most of the regional-minded voters and the anti-Congress voters under one umbrella. It took less than three years for the BJP – and for Himanta Biswa Sarma and the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) of which he is the chairman – to uproot the Congress from the region. It began with Arunachal Pradesh, though through a series of defections, and was quickly followed, one after the other by Manipur and Meghalaya. Nagaland of course already had a non-Congress government where the BJP was a minor partner, but the 2018 Assembly election saw the emergence of NDPP by a breakaway faction of the NPF which won the polls. Tripura, however, was the most interesting case, where the BJP in 2018 demolished Left Front which was holding fort for a quarter of a century. Mizoram too had witnessed ouster of the Congress government, but then the BJP had practically no credit there; while MNF chief Zoramthanga single-handedly defeated the Congress in the state, he very carefully kept the BJP out.

Now, looking at the Lok Sabha results, one finds that while the BJP and its allies had only eleven MPs out of 25 in 2014 (seven BJP in Assam and one in Arunachal Pradesh, one NPF in Nagaland, one NPP in Meghalaya and one SDF in Sikkim), the NDA tally has gone up to 18 this time. This includes 14 of the BJP (Assam 9, Tripura 2, Arunachal Pradesh 2, Manipur 1), its allies bagged four – NPP (one, in Meghalaya), NDPP (one, in Nagaland), NPF (one, in Manipur) and MNF (one, in Mizoram). The strength of the Congress, which had won eight seats in 2014 (Assam 3, Manipur 2, one each in Arunachal, Mizoram and Meghalaya), on the other hand has come down to just four (Assam 3, Meghalaya 1). The CPI(M), which had won two seats in Tripura has scored a zero this time. Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF, which had won three seats in 2014, has this time won only one, though it remains a fact that it had contributed to the Congress party’s victory in Kaliabor, Nagaon and Barpeta in a very significant way. In the lone Sikkim seat, on the other hand, the ruling Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) – which also lost power in the State Assembly election – lost to the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM). It is however not clear whether the SKM will remain close to the ruling NDA or the poor opposition UPA in Lok Sabha.

A few days from now Narendra Modi will take oath again as the Prime Minister of the country and constitute a new ministry. What will be important to keep an eye on is – the share of the Northeastern Region in the new council of ministers. In 2014-19, the Northeast put together had only two ministers, both of the rank of Minister of State. Of them while Rajen Gohain was denied a ticket, Kiren Rijiju, who displayed remarkable efficiency as an MoS for Home Affairs, definitely deserves elevation to a Cabinet rank with a good portfolio. Assam’s Rameswar Teli too stands a chance of inclusion as a Minister of State, while Meghalaya’s Agatha Sangma (NPP) and Manipur’s RK Ranjan (BJP) too stand the chance of inclusion in the ministry.