Population: Control or Perish

Population: Control or Perish

Dr BK Mukhopadhyay

(A noted management economist and an international commentator on business and economic affairs.

He may be reached at m.bibhas@gmail.com)

French Institute of Demographic Studies projected that by the end of this century there will be 10 to 11 billion people on the planet. The world population will jump from the current 7.1 billion to 9.7 billion by 2050. In India the same is assessed to rise from 1.2 billion to 1.6 billion, while that in China will remain at the same level [1.3 billion].

India will likely hold that rank throughout the 21st century. Its population is 1.34 billion, nearly a fourfold increase since independence 70 years ago. China’s population, at 1.41 billion, roughly doubled over the same period. The pace of India’s population growth, now at 15 million per year, is the world’s largest. The two nations alone have more than a billion people, and their population gap is projected to widen to 500 million by 2100. By comparison, the third and fourth most populous countries in 2100, Nigeria and the United States, are projected to have populations of nearly 800 million and 450 million, respectively.

The U N observed: It took until the early 1800s for the world population to reach one billion. Now we add a billion every 12-15 years.

It has been assessed that 10,000 years ago, humans made up 1percent of the weight of vertebrate land animals: the rest were all wild. Today, wild animals make up just 1 percent. The other 99 percent are humans, our farmed animals and our pets.

The FAO forecasts that we will need 70 percent more food by 2050. Due to population growth, availability of land per person in developing countries is expected to halve by 2050. Globally, we’ll use 71 percent more resources each by 2050, as per I R P assessment. What is more a matter of concern is the fact that more than 4 billion people will live in regions short of water by 2050. IEA’s forecast is that the global demand for energy will increase by 30 percent by 2040. Brooking Institution is prompt enough to opine that a global ‘middle class’ of 3.2 billion people consuming at a high level in 2016 is expected to rise to roughly 5 billion by 2030!!

Clearly, the natural world is paying the price.

The world population has risen seven fold over the last 200 years. For the first time in history, a majority of the world’s six billion people are living in cities. Between 2000 and 2025, the world’s urban population will double.

Actually, regarding the state of infrastructure little said is better. The rapid population growth has led to an acute shortage of dwelling units which resulted to; overcrowding, traffic congestion, pollution, housing shortages (slum and squatter housing), high rents, poor urban living conditions, low infrastructure services, poverty, unemployment, and poor sanitation which has become pervasive and indeed high crime rate.

A number of developing countries are still faced with bad road network, lack of power supply, inadequate water supply and some basic amenities. The drainage is poorly constructed leading to difficulty in accessing the roads due to the flood leading to the flood disaster in some developing countries. Problems such as insufficient housing, especially particular for low – income families, are being faced, which resulted in overcrowding of already congested areas, the continuing deterioration of rundown neighborhoods, high social cost and untold personal misery.

Measures proposed to offset rising costs in public housing that include, among others, less exclusionary zoning regulations, reduced tax burdens, cooperation with the private builders, encouragement of cooperative housing organization, promotion of industrialized building techniques, use of low- cost building materials and cheaper mortgage credit, are there but the overall position remains far from being satisfactory. Flooding is another very serious problem faced in urban areas, even in capital cities of developing countries, during the rainy seasons in particular.

Actually we are into a difficult stage globally and nationally in agriculture. Agricultural output will need to double by 2050 to feed a growing world. Produce more; conserve more and improve farmers’ lives and that is sustainable agriculture! Given the pattern and trends in land use time is ripe to seriously think over intensive farm practises so that the ever increasing demand emerging from high reta of growth of food-non-food - demanders coupled with lesser and lesser supply forces get treated simultaneously. Considering the situation of burgeoning population the farm sector is forced to go a long way before a satisfactory position is arrived at.

It is better not forgotten that an economy like India still is counted to be largest reservoir of poverty in the world, with 300 million of people, as per the national poverty line definition, and well above 800 million people just surviving on less than $2 per day! SE Asia requires immediate pep up on this score. Neglecting agriculture results in heavy immediate and future loss. The huge upcoming population in the workable category, in turn, should better be considered as one of the rare assets that could give rich dividends exactly by the same route as China gained in the previous years.

Should we then remain silent spectator even knowing the trends and things likely to happen? Can we not bring down the damages more rapidly with a positive outlook backed by global cooperation reminding everyone the ongoing fact and circumstances in as much as climate change is happening 170 times faster than it would do without human activity; based on today’s average global emission rates, population growth until 2050 will produce the same additional CO2 emissions as four additional USAs[World Bank (calculation by Population Matters)].

Finally, some of the latest thinking on this score may be helping the economies to frame realistic policies, especially the developing block: a little less makes a lot of difference; we can bring birth rates down; one less rich person helps slows the warming of the planet; choosing a smaller family is the most effective way of cutting your carbon emissions; smaller families help countries escape poverty; family planning is a great investment of overseas aid; smaller families save lives.

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