Unstable South Asia

The recent political happenings in Sri Lanka and the Maldives go to show just how fragile democracies still are in the South Asian theatre. The perceived threat is due to the looming Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean, thereby putting New Delhi on the defensive. The brawl in Sri Lankan parliament has elicited blaring headlines in international media, with legislators throwing chilli powder at each other and using as weapon copies of the country’s constitution. The trouble has been brewing for some time with President Maithripala Sirisena reportedly clashing on economic policy matters with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, and even accusing the latter of plotting to assassinate him. Under the Sri Lankan political system, the President is the head of State, head of government and commander of the armed forces, while the Prime Minister is his deputy. Matters finally came to a head last month when President Sirisena sacked Wickremesinghe for “grossly violating the principles of good governance” and appointed Mahinda Rajapaksha as Prime Minister; Sirisena followed this up by dissolving parliament and calling for snap elections on January 5. Even as Wickremesinghe refused to bow to this “unconstitutional coup” and go out quietly, his United National Party (UNP) demanded a trial of strength in parliament. The Sri Lankan Supreme Court intervened, suspending Sirisena’s orders to dissolve parliament and call for elections. Matters turned ugly on November 15 as Rajapaksha lost the no-confidence motion with 122 of the 225 members of parliament voting against him. Members traded punches, delivered kicks and hurled chairs while some of them tried to attack the Speaker. Livid that the trust vote was settled by voice vote, Rajapaksha has upped his demand for fresh elections. It remains to be seen what verdict the Supreme Court delivers next month, but as of now, the constitutional situation is that Sri Lanka has “no government and no Prime Minister” in the words of Speaker Karu Jayasuriya. Ever since he crushed the LTTE, Rajapaksha built himself up as a strongman with a clear liking for the Chinese, though India too had helped him during his campaign against the Tamil rebels. But China now has a strong foothold in Sri Lanka, having acquired the Hambantota port in its southern coast, Rajapaksha’s home region.

There have been persistent allegations that Rajapaksha of Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), who served as President from 2005 to 2015 — used Chinese funds invested in the port for his presidential campaign seeking a third term — though he eventually lost to Sirisena, his former party colleague who had joined hands with Wickremesinghe’s UNP to be the common opposition candidate. Since then, political winds in the island country have been shifting fast with Sirisena falling out with Wickremesinghe, while Rajapaksha has been on comeback trail heading a new faction SLPP within the SLFP. So Sirisena, who won the presidential elections in 2015 promising good governance, crackdown on graft and a presidency with reduced powers, seems to be aiming for rapprochement with his former party SLFP by seeking Rajapaksha as his deputy. Meanwhile, the handover of 80 percent ownership of Hambantota port to China on a 99-year lease by the Sri Lanka government has turned the focus on Beijing’s policy of throwing huge funds on foreign projects (without asking too many questions) to gain influence, and then capitalising on a country unable to service its debt. Built as part of the ambitious Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BNI), Hambantota’s feasibility as a port had long been doubted by experts. The suspicion has grown strong that Beijing knew this, yet went ahead to bankroll it so as to secure its control eventually and turn it into a naval base. Maldives, another country in the Indian Ocean, is in a similar situation after getting beholden to China during the rule of strongman Abdullah Yameen. His successor Ibrahim Solih after taking over as President on Saturday last, spoke about the country’s precarious finances — considered to be the outcome of running up huge debt of over 1.5 billion dollars with Chinese lenders to build up tourism-related infrastructure. Attending Solih’s swearing in ceremony, Prime Minister Narendra Modi later sat down with him for bilateral talks, with their joint statement calling for renewed developmental cooperation and stability in the Indian Ocean. On its part, New Delhi’s diplomatic restraint has been widely appreciated, for the ball is in Beijing’s court to refute allegations of using debt financing as a weapon. How far this goes to counter the Chinese strategy of encircling India, remains to be seen.