BJP likely to take advantage of Opposition's vote split in Bokajan

A Correspondent

BOKAJAN: With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is striving for a comfortable victory in Bokajan, anxiety and fear among other party candidates is palpable. The BJP is far ahead of the other parties in terms of position and reach and there is a fair possibility of the party's victory in the constituency. The incumbent MLA and BJP party candidate, Dr Numal Momin, who has a tremendous track record and recognition among diverse communities, has the higher ground.

In the two hill districts of Assam, i.e Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao, the Autonomous Councils and local municipalities are ruled by the BJP. The lone Lok Sabha parliamentary seat of the two hill districts also went into the saffron party's kitty recently.

In the 2016 State Assembly Election, BJP's Dr Numal Momin won over the Indian National Congress by a margin of 4,644 votes. Dr Numal Momin received 40,160 votes in this constituency, while Congress' Klendun Ingti received 35,426 votes. Jagatsing Ingti of Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC) received 25,377 votes. Jagatsing Ingti, a three-time former MLA, later joined the BJP and won the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council election from Sarupathar MAC constituency on a BJP ticket. Jagat is serving as an Executive Member in the Council.

In the ensuing poll, BJP's Dr. Numal Momin may gain a clear sweep if the former MLA and present Executive Member of KAAC, Jagatsing Ingti, who has a substantial tribal vote bank in the constituency, manages to swing a certain number of tribal votes in favour of the BJP. Recently, a controversy surrounding Article 244(A) not finding a place in Home Minister Amit Shah's speech in Karbi Anglong may potentially erode BJP's tribal vote share in the hill district. Implementation of Article 244(A) has remained a major demand of the tribal populace since long.

The Congress, on the other hand, may take advantage of this issue in the ensuing assembly election to corner tribal votes in some rural pockets. Moreover, the Congress candidate Raton Engti being a former Executive Member of the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council, has some influence in rural areas of the constituency. However, the entry of former KAAC Executive Member Surjya Rongphar and Chandra Kathar into the BJP party fold today is seen as a major jolt to the Congress in Bokajan.

The ASDC, which is an ally of Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Raijor Dal in Karbi Anglong, is also in the fray in Bokajan. The party, which was once a dominant political party in Karbi Anglong, has lost its sting over the years and has virtually become non-existent in the political scenario of the hill district. However, in the case of Bokajan constituency, the candidate Rajendra Rongpi, a former KAAC Executive Member, has potential to upset the calculations of the Congress in the ensuing polls.

Dr Numal Momin is banking on the non-tribal votes which comprises a substantial number of voters in the constituency. Moreover, Dr Momin is expected to gain in the tea tribe pockets considering BJP government's recent 'Chah Bagicha Dhan Puraskar Mela' and other schemes to woo tea tribe voters. The tea tribe community has the second largest vote share in Bokajan given the community based equation.

The four-way contest for tribal votes may help BJP in Bokajan. BJP is hoping that votes of the Karbi community, which constitutes majority of vote share in Bokajan, may get split amongst the Congress, the ASDC, the CPI (ML) and the APHLC candidates, finally paving way for Dr Numal Momin's victory in Bokajan. However, Dr Momin will anyway need to muster 15-20 per cent votes of the Karbi community to attain victory in Bokajan.

Although there is no anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP in Karbi Anglong, there is lobby politics within the party for which one cannot rule out the possibility of cross voting against the party candidate to change the arithmetic.

The chances of Congress attaining victory in Bokajan are remote as the party continues to be a divided house in the district. If sources are to be believed, dissidence among a section of party workers over allocation of party tickets is running high. Denial of party ticket to former MLA Klengdun Engti has caused a dent in the party foundation and may cost the Congress dear in Bokajan. Klengdun Engti is the son of former MP Biren Sing Engti and is considered to have a strong support base in the constituency. To sum up all, the Congress is having a difficult time containing infighting within the party and the ongoing factors may affect the party's performance electorally in the polls due on April 1. The CPI (ML), APHLC, Bharatiya Tribal Party and NPP does not have any significant presence in the district and are not considered as threats by the BJP. They are expected to cut through only the opposition's votes.

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