BJP alliance may fall short of majority, predicts CVoter

‘Saffron party’s alliance with AGP not factored in; any

Congress-AIUDF truck will tilt the scales against NDA’

Our Bureau

Guwahati, March 5: The five-party NDA alliance may fall short of majority in the upcoming Assam assembly elections, predicts an opinion poll conducted by CVoter.

The BJP-led alliance is projected to win 57 seats in a House of 126, seven short of majority.

Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi's Congress party is projected to win 44 seats, down from 78 it won five years ago.

Badruddin Ajmal's All Indian United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is projected to win 19 seats, one up from last time, while 'Others' may win six.

Voting percentagewise, the BJP-AGP combine is projected to get 35 percent, up from 33.9 percent last time, while the ruling Congress vote-share may be reduced to 35.6 from the previous 39.4 percent.

"In Assam, the survey was conducted before AGP and BJP tie up was announced. The AGP figures in this survey are part of "Others". The full impact of AGP+BJP alliance will be known only in the next round of survey. After AGP-BJP tie up, the NDA numbers could increase, but only slightly as the AGP presently commands less than 5% votes in the State. However, any strategic understanding between the Congress and the AIUDF could tilt the scale against the NDA," CVoter said in a press release.

Assam will go to two-phase polls on April 4 and 11. The results of all the four States and one UT elections (Puducherry) will be known on May 19.

According to the CVoter survey, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front may stage a comeback in the forthcoming Kerala Assembly polls, while Mamata Banerjee's Trimool Congress may retain power in West Bengal. In Tamil du, the ruling AIADMK may also fall slightly short of majority in the 234-seat Assembly, says the opinion poll conducted in the first week of March.

In Kerala, Chief Minister Oommen Chandy's United Democratic Front may be dislodged from power. It has been projected to win 49 seats, compared to 72 seats won five years ago, while the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front is projected to win 89 seats, with a clear majority in a House of 140.

In West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is projected to retain power, with her  TMC projected to win 156 seats in a House of 294. The party had won 184 seats five years ago. The CPI(M)-led Left Front is projected to win 114 seats (up from 60 seats five years ago), while the Congress' share of seats may shrink from 42 five years ago to 13 this time.

In the State, the TMC and Congress contested as an alliance in 2011.

[Methodology adopted for the survey: Random stratified sample of 14353 interviews covering all assembly segments in the poll bound states state during last 4 weeks. Long term trends of historical data from @cvoterindia exit polls archives of 2005, 2009, 2010 and 2014 elections and CVoter tracking poll conducted during last 60 months. Margin of error is +/-3% at State level and +/- 5% at regiol level.]