ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2016
BY OUR STAFF REPORTER
GUWAHATI, Feb 23: An online opinion poll conducted by a lesser known agency called Leadtech Online has predicted a hung Assembly in Assam in 2016. The agency in a report published on Tuesday gave 36 seats to the ruling Congress, 26 seats to the AIUDF, 61 to BJP and 3 seats to others. However, the poll is mum about whether the number of seats predicted for the BJP includes its allies as well; in particular, no mention has been made of the BPF which has already struck an alliance with the BJP, and the AGP which is in alliance talks with the saffron party. The Leadtech report said that the data is based on opinion of 2,825 voters collected online. It also said that the BJP has high chances of forming a government if it forges a pre-poll alliance.
Meanwhile, the yearly Assamese almac ‘Kalpurush’ which was released on Monday too predicted a hung assembly after the elections. Edited by Jyotirvushan Pulin Chandra Debo Sarma and published by Ranjit Kumar Saikia, it has predicted that this year a coalition government of three parties will be formed in the State ‘but it will be unstable’.
Two political alignments will be in contention, one centred around the Congress and the other around the BJP. However, Kalpurush has forecast a BJP-led coalition including AGP and BPF as likely partners, to have ‘better chances’ in forming the next government.
Interestingly, while the Congress, BJP and AIUDF are likely to figure prominently in the political scene, it is the Congress that will be the strongest of the three. But that will not be sufficient for the Congress to form the next government in Assam, predicts Kalpurush.
Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi’s raaxi will be stronger for the next six months. But after that, Gogoi’s fortunes are predicted to wane and the State may witness a change in the Chief Minister, said Sarma.
As for the AIUDF, it will be the kingmaker this year and will ‘get the opportunity to profit when the new ministry will be constituted’.
According to Sarma, Karkat raaxi will be the ‘Karak raaxi’ of Assam this year, and it will be favourable for both the BJP (having Makar raaxi) as well as the saffron party’s CM candidate sarbanda Sonowal’s raaxi.
The chances of Sonowal to be the next CM is therefore bright, predicts Kalpurush. It has also forecast ‘good times’ for BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma, especially after August next, ‘as his raaxi is also very strong signifying political ascent’.
The Asom Ga Parishad (AGP) is likely to support the BJP before or after the election, while the BPF will be in the BJP camp. But the BJP-led coalition will be unstable with one alliance partner or the other likely to leave the coalition, predicts Kalpurush.