Statistically, it's touch and go

Assembly elections 2016

By Our Staff Reporter

Guwahati, March 19: If statistics are anything to go by, no party seems to have an edge in the upcoming assembly elections in Assam.

Past records are not discouraging for the ruling Congress, but it is up against the BJP-AGP-BPF combine, an alliance whose prospects will depend on effective vote transfer. The Congress is not battling any "wave" as it had in 1985, but at the same time, the anti-incumbency factor may take a toll on the grand old party.

In 1985, when the dice was heavily loaded against the Congress, the party had maged to retain 25 seats, securing 23.4 per cent of the vote share. This after, its breakaway faction United Minority Front, split minority votes to bag as many as 17 seats.

The parties which have formed government in the last six elections in the State have not got more than 39 per cent of the vote share.

The AGP, in its heyday in 1985, got only 34 per cent of the total votes polled then, translating into 63 seats. The AGP's vote share in 1985 was much less than that of the Congress in 2001 and 2011 - which was 39 per cent.

The Congress had withstood the Jata Dal-wave of 1978 and had won in 26 seats, against 53 by the ruling party.

The State had been witnessing an average turnout of 76 per cent in assembly elections since 1985.

In the 1996 elections, the AGP had got 29.7 per cent of the vote share, one per cent less than the Congress, but was able to form the government with the Left.

Though 2011 was the worst elections for AGP (10 seats), the regiol party still maged to retain 16 per cent of the votes.

Independents on the other hand had played a crucial role, maging, on an average, 20 per cent of the vote share.

Formed after the repeal of the IM(DT) Act, the AIUDF has contested two elections till date. It had got 9 per cent of the votes in 2006, which increased to 12 in 2011.

BJP's vote share was highest in 2011, at 11 per cent. The saffron party has slowly made inroads into the State, from a meager 1 per cent of votes in 1985.

YEAR     PARTY     VOTE-SHARE

1985     Congress    23.4

    AGP     34.5

    BJP     1.07

1991    Congress     28.9

    AGP     18.0

    BJP     6.4

1996     Congress     30.5

    AGP     29.7

    BJP    10.4

2001    Congress     39.6

    AGP    20.1

    BJP     9.26

2006    Congress    31.0

    AGP    20.3

    BJP    11.9

    AIUDF    9.0

2011     Congress    39.3

    AGP    16.2

    BJP    11.4

    AIUDF    12.5