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BARAK VALLEY PRE-POLL SCENARIO
SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT
SILCHAR: The near possibility of an alliance of Congress with AIUDF has become a subject of keen public debate in the Barak Valley with speculative reports in the local media here. Will it be a challenge of consequence for BJP? As reports are emanating from political circles from State capital, the Congress and the AIUDF along with fringe parties are desperate to dislodge the Sarbananda Sonowal-led BJP government from the seat of citadel of Dispur in 2021. The battle of 2021 is billed as crucial for the saffron party as it will be the litmus test for its stand on the 'Citizenship Amendment Act' (CAA), Clause-VI of the Assam Accord, the NRC update in particular and tackling of the critical COVID-19 pandemic.
Against this backdrop, it will also be of interest to watch as to how the decision of two influential student bodies — the AASU and the AJYCP— to float a political party dovetails. Meanwhile, the founder president of ACKHSA (All Cachar Karimganj Hailakandi Students Association), Pradip Dutta Roy has also given indication of floating a political platform in the valley. It is yet to be assessed as to how far these regional parties will impact the impending polls, and the BJP alliance, as well as the grand conglomerate of the Congress and the AIUDF.
The Indian National Congress (INC) across the country has been a dwindling force. In its ever -dominating fort of the valley, the INC has been on the decline ever since its debacle in the 1991 saffron surge when it lost both the MP seats of Silchar and Karimganj; and nine of the 15 Assembly seats. The emergence of the AIUDF in 2005 (winning 10 seats in 2006, 18 in 2011 and 13 in 2016) has made the party more of a challenge to the Congress than to the BJP. An Analysis of the three poll results has shown that Badaruddin Ajmal's party has banked mainly on Muslim votes, once the strong vote-bank of the INC. This is the prime factor for which the Congress is hanging on to the AIUDF. The grand alliance, political analysts say, will be of great boost to Ajmal to further consolidate his party's base in Assam.
Ajmal, now a seasoned politician of ambition, knows how not to put all eggs in the same basket and count them before they are hatched. He is too eager to join the grand alliance. More anxious are Tarun Gogoi and Ripun Bora who are ready to embrace their one-time rival with the Common Minimum Programme. The Left parties in search of moorings are ready to grab the opportunity. The parties of consequence in the Barak Valley are the BJP, the Congress and the AIUDF. Of the 15 seats, BJP bagged eight, AIUDF four and Congress three in the 2016 Assembly polls. It was again in the LS polls of 2019 that the BJP won both the Parliamentary seats. The BJP's tally of eight seats is now up by one more seat as Rajdeep Goala, the unbeatable MLA of Congress from Lakhipur, is all set to join the BJP.
Dr Rajdeep Roy, MP and State general secretary of the BJP, who set the record of defeating Sushmita Dev, seating MP and All India Mahila Congress president, in 2019 is not at all worried. "Our party is all prepared to take on the 'Grand 'Alliance which he described as coming together of opportunists." The BJP remains unchallenged in State politics with its ever strong partners, the AGP and the BPF. No doubt with its strong organisational base and brigades of grassroots workers, the BJP-led coalition will again ride back to power, a confident BJP stalwart asserted.