War Clouds Over Gulf Threaten Assam Tea Exports as Strait of Hormuz Faces Uncertainty

Guwahati:The expanding conflict in the Middle East is beginning to cast a shadow far beyond the war zone, with Assam’s tea industry fearing a major disruption in exports if tensions around the Strait of Hormuz escalate further.

Industry leaders say the narrow but crucial sea passage is the lifeline for Indian tea shipments to the Gulf region, and any disruption could significantly impact Assam’s orthodox tea exports.

According to the Tea Association of India, nearly 41% of India’s total tea exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, underlining the enormous strategic importance of the shipping route.

President of the association Shailja Mehta warned that the escalating conflict could derail the recent growth momentum in tea exports, particularly from Assam.

India exported around 280 million kilograms of tea in 2025, of which a substantial 115 million kilograms were shipped to Gulf nations such as United Arab Emirates, Iran and Iraq. Most of these consignments transit through the Strait of Hormuz before reaching ports in the region.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters?

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime trade corridors. It connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, making it the main shipping route for trade between Gulf nations and the rest of the world.

For India’s tea industry, the strait plays a pivotal role because shipments destined for countries like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar must pass through this narrow waterway.

Industry estimates suggest that nearly 50% of Assam’s orthodox tea exports are consumed in markets such as Iran, Iraq and the UAE, making the region one of the most crucial destinations for the state’s premium teas.

Export gains now under threat

In recent years, India’s tea export growth has been driven largely by orthodox tea varieties, with Gulf countries emerging as key buyers. The surge in shipments to the region helped India achieve the 280 million kg export mark in 2025.

However, the ongoing war and rising tensions have triggered fears that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could face delays, higher insurance costs, or even temporary suspension.

Reports about possible closure or disruption of the strait have already raised concerns within the tea trade, though the United States has indicated efforts to ensure maritime security and insurance coverage for vessels using the route.

Subsidy push may face setback

The development also threatens to undermine a major policy push by the Government of Assam aimed at boosting exports of orthodox tea.

The state government recently increased the subsidy for orthodox tea from ₹10 per kg to ₹15 per kg, a move widely seen as a catalyst for expanding Assam’s presence in international markets.

However, tea industry leaders say the benefits of the subsidy could be blunted if the conflict leads to disruptions in Gulf-bound trade.

“Given the prevailing tensions and uncertainty surrounding shipping routes, the prospects for Indian tea exports look grim at the moment unless a credible solution emerges to end the conflict,” Mehta said.

For Assam’s tea gardens, which rely heavily on export markets for orthodox varieties, the situation underscores how a geopolitical flashpoint thousands of kilometres away can ripple through the plantations of Northeast India.

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