Opinion Poll Predicts 96-98 Seats for BJP in Assam, Congress Seen at 26-28: IANS-Matrize Survey

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is forecast to return to power in Assam with a comfortable majority, according to an opinion poll by IANS-Matrize released shortly after the Election Commission announced the state's Assembly election schedule on Saturday.

The survey projects the BJP winning 96 to 98 seats in the 126-member Assam Legislative Assembly, with a vote share of 43 to 44 per cent. The poll suggests the party will face no significant anti-incumbency wave, with voters largely satisfied with the Himanta Biswa Sarma government.

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The main challenger, Congress — led by APCC President Gaurav Gogoi — is projected to do better than its recent performance but fall well short of posing a real threat to the ruling dispensation. The survey forecasts Congress winning 26 to 28 seats with a vote share of 39 to 40 per cent.

Others and independent candidates are seen securing a moderate share of votes but not enough to play a decisive role in government formation.

Moments after the Election Commission announced that Assam will go to polls in a single phase on April 9, with results on May 4, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma took to X with his immediate reaction.

"Yato dharmastato jayah," he posted — a Sanskrit phrase meaning "where there is righteousness, there is victory."

Sarma is seeking a second term in office, while the Congress is hoping for a breakthrough after years in opposition. The state has seen intense political activity in recent months, including the exit of veteran Congress leaders, including Bhupen Borah, ahead of the election.