Mamata's Brinkmanship

Amitava Mukherjee

(Amitava Mukherjee is a senior journalist and commentator. He can be reached at amitavamukherjee253@gmail.com)

NRC or no NRC, ingress of population from outside the border has become a part of life in West Bengal. More than the probability of an NRC in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee should be worried about the Citizenship Amendment Bill which is sure to take the wind away from the Trinamul Congress' (TMC) sail. In fact this Bill had greatly contributed behind the polarization of votes that had resulted in the BJP's impressive showing in West Bengal during the last LokSabha election.

Mamata Banerjee, the West Bengal Chief Minister, is shouting from rooftops against launching of any NRC drive in her State. She has also stated that she is prepared to lay down her life for preventing preparation of NRC in West Bengal. Standing up against harassment of genuine citizens of the country is laudable. But Mamata's ultimate purpose is not clear. It appears from her public posture that she is against institution of any NRC drive per se. Then, is she really challenging the census data? These figures however nullify Mamata's public stand. Not only Assam and the other north eastern states, West Bengal has also experienced population explosions, indicating continuous infiltration from across the border.

Mamata is missing one vital point. NRC is not merely a mechanism to identify the citizens and non citizens of a country. Under the present volatile socio-political situations all over the world it is also a reliable tool to identify and preserve the concept of a sovereign nation state, an idea which has found acceptance in the opinions of statesmen and thinkers. Even the Communists whose credo imbibes the idea of statelessness have compromised with the reality of nation states. An ideal example was Stalin himself when in the 1930s repeatedly invoked the slogan of Slav nationalism to strengthen his own political position.

It should not be denied that the concept of an Indian nation is being continuously hammered by infiltration of population from Bangladesh. Politicians and policy makers in India should remain aware of increasing currency in Bangladesh of a theory called Lebensraum which literally means living space. A section of Bangladeshi intellectuals are propagating, in the name of this theory, that there should always be rights for free movement of people from a thickly populated area to a less populated one. Can population explosions in Assam and West Bengal be explained in the light of this theory?

There are several loose ends in the population dynamics of West Bengal and clearing up all those inconsistencies are necessary. Most important of all is the decadal growth rate of population in the state which has been shown as 13.84 per cent in the census data of 2011, a clear fall of 4 per cent from the 17.84 per cent recorded in 2001 census. But no satisfactory explanation has been given for this decline. Moreover the decadal growth rate for the state shown in the 2011 census is much below the national average of 17 per cent. West Bengal being a border state, is this figure really feasible? An NRC would have been helpful in giving a lead towards finding a solution to this conundrum.

Attempts are afoot to whip up a public frenzy against the NRC. Apart from the Trinamul Congress several other small and so far unknown organizations are putting up posters against any NRC exercise. But for a proper perspective of the situation we have three dependable sources- T.V. Rajeswar, a former Intelligence Bureau chief who was also a former Governor of West Bengal; two census reports of Bangladesh and the Indian census report of 1991. We must be thankful to Rajeswar for he was the one who first forced the lid out. He was no political person although the then Left Front government led by Jyoti Basu had hurled abuses at him because Rajeswar's findings pointed out towards the Jyoti Basu government's inaction over continuous infiltration.

But what had Rajeswar really pointed out? According to him, in the 1981 census the total population growth rate for West Bengal was 23.2 per cent while the same for the minority community was 29.6 per cent. In the same census the overall yearly population growth of the state was around 2.3 per cent. But in the districts bordering Bangladesh the figures were higher- 2.71 per cent in then undivided 24 Parganas, 3.3 per cent in Nadia, 2.55 per cent in Murshidabad and 2.66 per cent in both Malda and Jalpaiguri. Naturally the immigrants first choice was to settle in districts just across the border.

One notable feature in this massive transfer of population is that the composition of the immigrants consists of both Hindus and Muslims. This explains the bizarre feature of a 'missing population' in the Bangladesh census. In 1970 the total population of the then East Pakistan was seven crores and fifty lakhs. But the 1974 census, the first one in independent Bangladesh, showed the figure to be 7,14,78.000. Keeping in mind the generally accepted assumption that 30 lakh people had perished during the Bangladesh liberation war, absence of more than five lakhs of people in the first census of Bangladesh has come to be known as the 'missing population'. Moreover, if the 3.1 per cent annual population growth rate during the 1971-1974 period is taken into account then the total population of Bangladesh should have shown an increase of 22 lakhs. So where have all these people vanished? The axiomatic answer is India.

But there should be no confusion on one point-immigration from Bangladesh is not limited to any single community and both Hindus and Muslims are coming. In the 1991 census the average population growth rate of West Bengal was 24.73 per cent, quite an abnormally high figure. But the districts bordering Bangladesh showed even higher figures: North Dinajpore (34 per cent), North 24 Parganas (31.69 per cent), South 24 Parganas (30.24 per cent), Murshidabad (28.20 per cent) and Nadia ( 29.95 per cent).

Statistics leaves an impression that from 1971 to 1991 huge numbers of immigrants have entered India from Bangladesh. A probable reason for it might have been the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahaman in 1975 and fast paced Islamization of Bangladesh polity under Ziaur Rahaman and H. M. Ershad. This period also witnessed deterioration of agriculture and industry in Bangladesh. Moreover, another very important factor works behind emigration of people from that country. Each year-one third of Bangladesh gets inundated by floods thereby displacing 19 million people. Have the governments in New Delhi and Dhaka ever probed where these hapless people go to find shelters?

Whether West Bengal will be put through an NRC exercise is a complex question. But the state is now overburdened with a population explosion a large percentage of which certainly consists of aliens. It is up to both the Central and State governments to ensure that the rightful spaces of genuine citizens are not disturbed.

Also Read: NRC Not Needed In Bengal: West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee