Assam Electricity Regulatory Commission approves APDCL’s Resource Adequacy Plan

Staff Reporter

Guwahati: The Assam Electricity Regulatory Commission (AERC) has approved the Resource Adequacy (RA) Report submitted by the Assam Power Distribution Company Limited (APDCL) for the period FY 2026-27 to FY 2035-36, while directing the power utility to address several gaps in its report in future planning exercises.

The report, filed under the AERC (Framework for Resource Adequacy) Regulations, 2024, provides a long-term roadmap for ensuring adequate power resources to meet Assam’s growing electricity demand over the next decade.

According to APDCL, Assam’s peak power demand is projected to rise from 3,127 MW in FY 2026-27 to 5,517 MW by FY 2035-36 under the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, while under an optimistic growth scenario, peak demand could reach 7,972 MW by FY 2035-36. Energy consumption is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% under the BAU scenario and 9.8% under the optimistic scenario.

APDCL’s study identified a 3% Planning Reserve Margin (PRM) under the BAU scenario and 5% PRM under the optimistic scenario as necessary to maintain reliability standards prescribed by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

To meet future demand, APDCL has proposed significant additions of solar power, wind energy, battery energy storage systems and market-based power procurement. The study noted that Assam’s night-peaking demand profile would require substantial support from dispatchable sources such as thermal power and energy storage systems.

However, the Commission observed several deficiencies in the report. AERC directed APDCL to include a “Most Probable Scenario” in future Resource Adequacy studies, in addition to the BAU and optimistic demand projections, to provide a more realistic assessment of future resource requirements.

The regulator also asked APDCL to account for emerging factors that could influence demand, including increasing adoption of electric vehicles, electric cooking appliances, rooftop solar installations, open access migration, demand-side management programmes and industrial growth.

AERC further advised the utility to coordinate with Assam’s Industrial Development Department and other government agencies to better assess upcoming industrial projects and incorporate them into future demand forecasts.

The Commission also expressed concern over APDCL’s projected distribution loss reduction trajectory, suggesting that the utility should adopt more ambitious targets. It noted that several states have already reduced distribution losses below 8 per cent, and Assam should strive to achieve similar performance levels over the next decade.

While taking note of the delay in submission of the report, the AERC considered it acceptable since it was the first Resource Adequacy filing under the new regulations. However, the Commission directed APDCL to strictly adhere to future timelines and maintain close coordination with the State Load Despatch Centre (SLDC), Assam Electricity Grid Corporation Limited (AEGCL) and other stakeholders.

More importantly, the Commission clarified that approval of the Resource Adequacy Report is only for planning purposes and does not constitute approval for power procurement, capacity addition, signing of power purchase agreements or any financial commitment by APDCL. Any such proposals will require separate regulatory scrutiny and approvals as mandated under the Electricity Act, 2003.

With these observations and directions, AERC disposed of APDCL’s petition, formally approving the power utility’s Resource Adequacy Report as a preliminary planning document for ensuring Assam’s future power security.

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