Normal Rainfall Expected Across Northeast During Monsoon: IMD

Staff Reporter

Guwahati: Even as the Southwest Monsoon approaches India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has provided some good news for the Northeast region. While the monsoon is predicted to be below normal in most parts of India, the Northeast is set to receive normal rainfall. In contrast, there was deficit rainfall in Assam last year. The monsoon season in India generally lasts from June to September.

The IMD today published the updated long-range forecast for the Southwest Monsoon seasonal rainfall during June to September 2026. The highlights of the forecast are: (a) Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%, indicating that below-normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September) in 2026; (b) The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be normal over Northeast India (94-106% of LPA) and below normal over Central & South Peninsular India (<94% of LPA) and Northwest India (<92% of LPA); (c) The monsoon rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country, is most likely to be below normal (<94% of LPA); (d) The average rainfall for the country as a whole during June 2026 is most likely to be below normal (<92% of LPA).

The IMD’s forecast also says that during June 2026, below-normal monthly rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except over some parts of Northwest India, Northeast India and the south Peninsula and isolated pockets of central India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely. Since 2021, the IMD has been using a new strategy for issuing operational long-range forecasts on monthly and seasonal scales for rainfall and temperatures across the country.

In this pre-monsoon season, Assam has received more rainfall than normal. From March 1 to May 27, 2026, Assam received 547.3 mm of rainfall against a normal of 494 mm, which is 11% more than normal.

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