Survey predicts Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hat-trick in Assam; NDA likely to touch 90

STAFF REPORTER

GUWAHATI: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to secure a third consecutive term in Assam, with the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) likely to touch the 90-seat mark in the 126-member Assembly, according to a tracker poll conducted by People’s Pulse Research Organization ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections.

The survey, carried out between November 15 and December 31, 2025, projects the BJP as the single largest party with 69 to 74 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark on its own. With allies Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), the NDA is expected to register a resounding victory amid a fragmented opposition.

Dr Rajan Pandey, political analyst and director of People’s Pulse Research Organization, said the findings reflect the BJP’s deepening connect with diverse voter groups. He noted that the opposition, particularly parties such as AIUDF and UPPL, is struggling for political survival, clearing the path for an NDA sweep.

The 45-day field-based study used a purposive stratified random sampling model and covered all 35 districts across Upper Assam, Barak Valley, Middle Assam and Lower Assam. A total of 5,000 respondents were interviewed through face-to-face interactions in all 126 Assembly constituencies. The sample reflected ground realities in terms of caste, religion, age and gender, with equal representation of men and women.

The research team travelled over 5,000 kilometres and also conducted open-ended conversations, social listening exercises and consultations with political observers and journalists to validate the findings.

Apart from the BJP’s projected 69–74 seats, the Congress is expected to secure 25–29 seats. NDA allies AGP and BPF are projected to win 8–11 and 8–10 seats respectively. Other parties, including AIUDF, UPPL, Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad and CPI(M), are likely to be reduced to a marginal presence.

In terms of vote share, the BJP is projected at 39 per cent, narrowly ahead of the Congress at 37 per cent. While the Congress has gained votes mainly due to the erosion of AIUDF’s base, factors such as delimitation, weak alliances and organizational shortcomings are expected to limit its seat conversion.

The chief ministerial preference poll shows a close contest, with incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma leading at 30 per cent, followed by former Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal at 28 per cent and Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi at 27 per cent. Other leaders trail far behind, while seven per cent of respondents remain undecided.

On key governance parameters, the BJP enjoys a clear edge. Around 48 per cent of respondents believe the BJP is better for Assam’s development, while 55 per cent feel the party deserves another term. Welfare schemes, organizational strength and sustained electoral successes since 2021 have helped the NDA expand its base, particularly among tribal and OBC communities.

The survey indicates strong BJP support among caste Assamese, Ahoms, Hindu Bengalis, tribals and tea tribes, while Muslims overwhelmingly prefer the Congress, rejecting AIUDF. Region-wise, the NDA is expected to dominate Barak Valley, Upper Assam and the Bodoland Territorial Areas Districts, aided by the recent delimitation exercise.

Dr Pandey concluded that Assam’s electorate appears inclined towards stability and continuity, making a BJP hat-trick in 2026 highly likely.

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