Dipak Kurmi
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com.)
On May 12, 2025, Mir Yar Baloch, a prominent leader of the Baloch nationalist movement, made a dramatic and historic announcement: he declared the Republic of Balochistan as an independent nation. This audacious move, delivered in a fiery address to the world, called upon the United Nations and the global community to recognize Balochistan’s sovereignty, free from Pakistani domination. What was once considered a marginal movement now stands as a central fault line in South Asia’s complex geopolitical landscape.
The roots of the Baloch nationalist movement are ancient and deeply intertwined with the region’s history. Balochistan, a region spanning across parts of Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan, has long maintained a distinct identity. The region was historically governed by tribal confederacies, with autonomy fiercely defended by the Baloch people. The Khanate of Kalat, one of the region’s most influential princely states, was known for its resistance to centralized control. During British colonial rule, Balochistan was largely left to self-govern, serving as a buffer zone between British India and the Russian Empire. The British allowed the Baloch tribes to maintain a degree of internal autonomy while keeping the region strategically important for the empire’s interests.
The seeds of discontent were sown long before Pakistan came into existence. When British India was partitioned in 1947, leading to the creation of Pakistan, the Khan of Kalat declared Balochistan an independent state on August 12, 1947, even before Pakistan’s own birth. Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan, initially acknowledged Balochistan’s separate identity. However, amid mounting pressures from both regional and global powers, this recognition was short-lived. On March 27, 1948, Pakistan forcefully annexed Balochistan, a move seen by the Baloch as illegitimate and an infringement on their rights to self-determination.
The annexation marked the beginning of a long and bloody struggle for autonomy. Over the following decades, Balochistan saw several major uprisings, most notably in 1958-59 and again in the 1960s, led by figures such as Nawab Nauroz Khan and Sher Muhammad Marri. These revolts were met with brutal suppression from Pakistan’s military, but the desire for autonomy continued to simmer beneath the surface. In 1973, when Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto dismissed the provincial government of Balochistan, it triggered yet another wave of insurgency. The insurrection, inspired by the secession of East Pakistan in 1971, lasted for years but was eventually crushed by superior military force.
A turning point came in 2006 when Nawab Akbar Bugti, a prominent Baloch leader, was killed by the Pakistani military. His death galvanized the Baloch nationalist movement and led to the rise of insurgent groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF). These groups began targeting key Pakistani military installations, infrastructure, and the Chinese investments tied to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), an ambitious project that seeks to connect Gwadar Port with China’s Xinjiang region.
Balochistan’s grievances are not merely rooted in history but also in the region’s stark socio-economic conditions. Despite being rich in natural resources such as natural gas, minerals, and oil, the province remains one of the most impoverished and underdeveloped in Pakistan. The people of Balochistan suffer from chronic unemployment, illiteracy, and political marginalization. The central government in Islamabad has consistently failed to include Baloch representation in key power structures — military, bureaucracy, and politics — further alienating the region. For many Baloch people, Pakistan is not a nation but an occupying force.
The tectonic shift in the Baloch struggle occurred in 2025, marked by a sharp escalation in both Baloch insurgency and regional tensions. On May 7, 2025, India launched Operation Sindoor in retaliation for the deadly Pahalgam massacre, which killed several Indian tourists in Jammu and Kashmir. The attack, widely believed to be orchestrated by Pakistani-backed terrorists, sparked fury across India, and calls for decisive action were loud. Operation Sindoor was swift and strategic, targeting terrorist infrastructure, which left Pakistan reeling.
As Pakistan’s attention turned eastward, the Baloch insurgency surged. On May 11, 2025, the BLA launched one of its most audacious operations in recent years, attacking 52 locations across Balochistan and targeting 71 strategic points. This attack, in essence, marked the beginning of a new phase in the Baloch struggle for independence. The very next day, Mir Yar Baloch declared the Republic of Balochistan an independent nation. The declaration was met with a mixture of defiance and hope among Baloch nationalists, signalling a pivotal moment in the region’s history.
The implications of this declaration are profound, not only for Pakistan but for the entire region. Pakistan now finds itself engaged in a multi-front war. On the military front, it is stretched thin, combating insurgencies in Balochistan, the tribal areas along the Afghan border, and dealing with internal instability. Diplomatic isolation has compounded Pakistan’s challenges, with the international community closely monitoring the situation. Should Pakistan respond with forceful suppression, it risks further alienating global opinion. The haunting memories of Bangladesh’s secession in 1971 still loom large, and if the Baloch movement gains significant momentum, the spectre of Pakistan’s fragmentation could become a real possibility.
China, deeply invested in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), finds itself in a precarious position. The Gwadar Port in Balochistan, a crucial part of the CPEC, has long been a strategic asset for Beijing. A hostile or unregulated Balochistan could disrupt vital trade routes and force China to reconsider its investments in the region. Already concerned about unrest in its own Xinjiang region, China may feel compelled to support Pakistan militarily or through private security contractors, thereby internationalizing the conflict.
Iran, which shares a long border with Balochistan and is home to a significant Baloch population in its province of Sistan-Balochistan, is also closely watching the situation. A successful separatist movement in Pakistan could embolden similar demands within Iran’s borders, forcing Tehran to recalibrate its security policy and possibly align more closely with Islamabad. In turn, this could lead to greater regional instability.
Afghanistan, under the control of the Taliban, remains an unpredictable wildcard in the unfolding crisis. Depending on how events transpire, Afghanistan could either offer refuge to Baloch militants or use the unrest to enhance its leverage along the Durand Line, which divides Pakistan and Afghanistan. As a neighbour, Afghanistan’s position on the Baloch question could tilt the regional balance in unexpected ways.
India, which has expressed moral support for the Baloch nationalist cause since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2016 Red Fort speech, stands at a critical crossroads. While India’s position has traditionally been one of diplomatic support, Balochistan’s declaration of independence presents a new opportunity for India to highlight Pakistan’s internal contradictions. However, overt support for Balochistan’s independence could provoke international condemnation and risk escalating military tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. India is more likely to continue its strategy of diplomatic engagement, leveraging its influence within the global Baloch diaspora and using the situation to diplomatically isolate Pakistan.
Will the world recognize the Republic of Balochistan? As of now, no country has officially recognized the newly declared state, and Pakistan has made it clear that it will not entertain any calls for independence. However, the support for Balochistan’s cause is growing. Exiled leaders, human rights organizations, and sympathetic legislatures worldwide are beginning to amplify the Baloch struggle for self-determination. Symbolic recognition by smaller nations and international bodies could shift the momentum in the Baloch camp, and though full recognition remains uncertain, the very act of declaration has sparked a fire that cannot be easily extinguished.
Pakistan’s response is likely to be a combination of political manoeuvring, military crackdowns, and the possible imposition of emergency laws to suppress the rebellion. However, history shows that such measures often deepen wounds rather than heal them. The declaration of the Republic of Balochistan is not merely a separatist bid; it is a cry for dignity, justice, and self-determination from a people long marginalized and oppressed. As South Asia stands on the precipice of potential change, the world must decide whether to ignore the Baloch call for self-determination or confront it with wisdom and foresight. The future of Balochistan, and perhaps the region itself, hangs in the balance.