The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran and growing conflict in the Middle East region have overshadowed Assam’s orthodox tea export market. The uncertainty over the fast-developing geopolitical situation in Iran and Middle East region has exposed the export-related vulnerabilities of the state’s orthodox tea production. Promoting domestic consumption of orthodox tea is critical for absorbing such geopolitical shocks in the long term. The industry’s apprehension that the state’s orthodox market may suffer export bottlenecks if the ongoing conflict stretches until March-April, when the next large-scale tea production is due, stems from real risks, as the global war has US president Donald Trump warning that the war could last over a month. Iran consumes around 50% of Assam’s orthodox production, and if the conflict is dragged on for a longer period, then it will have a cascading impact on orthodox production and export. Official data shows that the export of orthodox tea has registered a substantial increase of 40 million kg in the 2025-26 financial year, which encouraged the state government to increase the orthodox tea production subsidy from Rs 10 to Rs 15 per kilogram with the aim of making orthodox tea half of total exports. The incentive encouraged a number of CTC producers to transition to orthodox production as the demand for Assam orthodox surged in global markets; it fetched premium prices and increased profitability. Implementation of the ‘Tea Development & Promotion Scheme (TDPS)’, which aims to increase the production and productivity of tea, improve the quality of tea entering the markets, and enhance exports and help Small Tea Growers (STG) to move up the value chain, remains crucial for sustaining the overall growth momentum. The central government informed the Lok Sabha in December that recommendations in an evaluation study of TDPS carried out by the Development Monitoring and Evaluation Office, NITI Aayog included replantation, scaling up of brand promotion efforts, formation of Self Help Groups/Farmer Producer Organisations of STGs, dissemination of knowledge to farmers on good agriculture practices and capacity building of STGs. These recommendations formed the basis of the finalisation of the TDPS scheme for the period 2023-24 to 2025-26. Under the scheme, out of the Tea Board’s overall budget, Rs 152.76 Crore was allocated and Rs 150. 20 crore was utilised by the Tea Board for activities specific to Assam during the period 2021-22 to 2025-26, which reflects the sustained efforts by the government under TDPS for tea development, which also has an impact on tea export from the state. Boosting the production of high-quality orthodox tea in the state is also crucial to strategically positioning Assam to capture the global markets opened by India’s new Free Trade Agreements with the UK, EU, and USA as envisaged in the interim Assam budget for 2026-27. Still, quality improvement in CTC production remains essential for mitigating price volatility in the domestic market. Deficient rainfall and excessive heat affecting overall tea production and affecting quality remain an area of concern, and this calls for adequate mitigation measures to overcome the challenges. Climate change forecasts show that climate-related risks are poised to become more challenging, which the tea industry cannot afford to ignore. The application of artificial intelligence can be explored for assessing the risks and vulnerabilities in domestic as well as export markets on account of geopolitical situations, natural disasters, price volatility, and other factors. The supply-demand imbalance caused by export bottlenecks can be offset by increasing per capita consumption of tea in the domestic market. Promotion of tea’s health benefits among youth, who are more health conscious, can help boost domestic production. The younger generation is also concerned about quality, food safety, and transparency during the manufacturing and distribution processes. This priority of the young generation calls for strict adherence to food safety standards in the tea manufacturing process. In competitive markets, branding and labelling play a vital role in marketing, promoting products, and boosting customer confidence. Even though tea consumption in the domestic market is far larger than coffee, which primarily dominates southern states, aggressive branding has not just led to steady growth in coffee consumption across states but has also fetched higher prices for some varieties compared to most premium teas. The declaration of tea as a national drink, which has been a long-standing demand of the Assam tea industry, can help increase tea consumption in the country, but quality and branding remain the core of marketing strategies for steady growth in domestic consumption. Currently, CTC dominates the mass domestic consumption, and orthodox tea consumption in the domestic market is quite small. Growing preference for premium tea among urban consumers can be leveraged for promoting orthodox tea consumption in the domestic market. The industry’s current export-centric production of orthodox tea needs a renewed marketing strategy. A strategic marketing shift to unlock the domestic consumption potential of orthodox tea can be beneficial in absorbing supply-demand imbalance shocks due to the geopolitical situation.