Editorial

High-stakes polls in Mizoram

Senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi kick-starting the party’s campaign in Mizoram has raised the poll fever in the hill state where assembly elections are scheduled to be held on November 7.

Sentinel Digital Desk

 Senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi kick-starting the party’s campaign in Mizoram has raised the poll fever in the hill state where assembly elections are scheduled to be held on November 7. The state bordering Myanmar and Bangladesh is poised for a three-cornered contest among ruling Mizo National Front (MNF), Congress and Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM). The Congress is struggling to reclaim the space of the principal contender against ruling MNF which has already been taken over by the ZPM. The grand old party’s dismal performance in the last assembly polls in 2018 with only four seats it its kitty has allowed the space for rise of ZPM among urban youth constituency. ZPM sweeping the recently-concluded Lunglei Municipal Council polls with more than 49% votes has triggered speculations about the party’s poll prospects in the assembly polls. In the last assembly polls, MNF won 27 seats while Congress was decimated to just 4 seats in the 40-member Mizoram Assembly while independent while ZPM with 8 seats pushed the Congress to the third position. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which contested 39 seats and managed to win only one seat is hoping to raise its stakes after two MNF legislators shifted loyalty and joined the party. The Congress party is banking on its traditional stronghold in rural Mizoram and hopes that Gandhi’s electioneering will help it regain some lost support base among urban voters. Stakes are high for the ruling MNF which is pinning hopes on the issue of Zo-unification issue for retaining power for a consecutive term. Mizoram currently has about 35,000 Chin refugees who fled Myanmar following the military coup in 2021 in the neighbouring country, over 1000 Kuki-Zo refugees from Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh and about 12,600 Kuki people displaced from Manipur following violent clashes in the neighbouring state currently sheltered in relief camps. The MNF government headed by incumbent Chief Minister Zoramthanga refused to comply with a recent directive of the Ministry of Home Affairs to collect biometrics of Myanmar refugees in the state. The Mizoram government took the stance that collection of biometrics may lead to forced deportation and discrimination of Chin refugees from Myanmar whom the Zoramthanga government considers as “Mizo brethren.” The Zoramthanga government refused to comply with an earlier directive from the central government to push back the Myanmar refugees and prevent influx when they crossed over for shelter in the state on the same ground and insisted that India could not turn a blind eye to the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Myanmar. This also brought to the fore the complexities arising out of lack of refugee law in India. As India is not signatory to the 1951 United Nations Convention on the Status of Refugees and MHA issues only Standard Operating Procedure to deal with foreign nationals in India, who claim to be refugees. According to information furnished by the central government to the parliament, Long Term Visas are granted to refugees based on existing guidelines after due security verification etc. which permits them for facilities at par with other foreigners such as – employment in the private sector, undertake studies in any academic institution. In the event of refugee issue overshadowing other issues of corruption, underdevelopment raised by opposition parties, the MNF hopes to get an edge as the clamour for Kuki-Zo-unity has an emotive appeal among the voters, and repeat its 2018 performance. Rise of ZPM as the principal challenger to the MNF also worries the Congress as in 2018 the emerging regional player cut into Congress votes which helped MNF to sweep the polls. Nevertheless, the Congress managed to secure 30.55 % votes and is pining hopes on ZPM cutting into MNF votes this time in three-way contest to increase its tally. The Congress hopes to become the key challenger stem from the Mizoram Secular Alliance it forged with Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP) and People’s Conference Party. The ZNP was a constituent of the ZPM. Post-poll equations in the event of the three-cornered contest throwing up a hung house are likely to be influenced by verdict in four other states Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. MNF making it clear that its support to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre is issue-based keeps open the door for the party. The MNF supported the no-confidence brought by the Congress-led I.N.D.I.A opposition block against the BJP-led government at the Centre but continues to be an ally of the NDA which makes the electoral politics in the state interesting for poll watchers for likely post-poll possibilities. Political stability in the state is critical to India pushing cross-border connectivity projects such Kaladan multimodal project under Act East policy and geopolitics in the neighbourhood. It will, however, depend on how the issues raised by three key stakeholders appeal to voters in the intense poll battle.