Battlelines have been drawn for Assam Assembly polls on April 9, with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) declaring its list of 88 candidates and major opposition party Congress and its alliance partners releasing names of 78 candidates. The BJP has the highest stakes in Assam among the five states that will hold polls on the same day. The party is seeking a third consecutive term, and the incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is aiming at his second consecutive term. There were some voices of dissent against the list of official nominees of the BJP in a few constituencies, but the die has been cast, and there is no scope for any changes in the list. For any political party, winnability must remain the top priority, and for a well-oiled party like the BJP, the winnability of candidates is arrived at after multiple surveys in which feedback from party workers, supporters and voters of each constituency plays the crucial role in its consecutive and landslide victory across states and at the centre. With only four days left for the close of nomination, the Congress not being able to declare its third list and reach consensus on seat sharing with Raijor Dal has shaped the perception among voters about the BJP being ahead in the initial race. Defection of several senior Congress leaders with sitting Member of Parliament of the party from the Nagaon Lok Sabha constituency and former state president Bhupen Borah to the BJP, both of whom will be contesting as BJP candidates, and revolt by ticket aspirants who failed to get party nominations have posed hurdles before Congress charioteer Gaurav Gogoi in his maiden electoral challenge as the state unit president. Nevertheless, BJP cannot afford to ignore the impact of Gogoi’s candidature from the Jorhat assembly constituency, as his decisive victory in the 2024 parliamentary elections from the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat caused ripples in political circles. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah visited the state several times in the past couple of months, and the overwhelming response to the Jan Ashirwad Yatra taken out by Chief Minister Sarma speaks volumes about the BJP taking every single election seriously and leaving no stone unturned to win the electoral support of the people for continuing the development agenda. In sharp contrast, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and/or any central leaders are still missing in action. With Congress having higher stakes in Keralam and the single-phase poll in all five states, Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka Gandhi are less likely to focus on Assam. This also holds out the mirror to the grand old party on the political reality of the party being overdependent on the Gandhi family and not providing the space for other leaders to grow in the organisation to match the election machinery of the BJP, which is led by a large number of star campaigners apart from Prime Minister Modi and Union Home Minister Shah. Gaurav Gogoi too has been making efforts to connect to voters by taking out the Samay Parivartan Yatra but has not been able to take out the yatra at a single stretch for maximum impact, as desertion by top-ranking leaders has kept him busy in devising strategies to check further erosion. Political stability is crucial for any state to move faster up the ladder of progress through continuation of the development process. For voters, it is stocktaking time before deciding their mandate, and as the opportunity comes to them after five years, the electioneering and issues play a vital role in influencing their decisions. It is in this context that the popularity of an incumbent government is put to the test. The BJP-led ruling coalition managed to reach a clear understanding on seat sharing with 89 seats for BJP, 26 for Asom Gana Parishad and 11 for Bodoland People’s Front. The Congress, on the other hand, is still struggling to reach consensus with all major opposition parties. Excluding the All India United Democratic Front has put a spanner in the party’s effort to create the perception of a stronger opposition, and this leaves the possibility of a split in votes among three distinct opposition camps. The delay in seat adjustments has also prevented the opposition parties from launching a united electioneering campaign and presenting before the voters their electoral issues and promises. If the Congress is also able to reach a seat adjustment with Raijor Dal and the alliance led by Congress is able to put up a single candidate against the candidates of the ruling coalition, then they can hope for some changes in poll arithmetic, provided they are also able to connect to all sections of voters. The prospect appears to be remote as of now, with not much time left for the process of nomination and campaigning. The BJP-led ruling coalition appears to be leading the perception battle, but then electoral politics is full of ifs and buts.