Dr. Sudhir Kumar Das
(dasudhirk@gmail.com)
The present volatile situation in Bangladesh is an apt illustration of how fickle history can be. In January 1972, when Sheikh Mujibur Rahman returned to the nascent nation of Bangladesh after his release from incarceration in Pakistani prison to an ecstatic ovation by millions of Bengalis who unquestionably hailed him as the Father of the Nation, the whole of Dhaka reverberated with slogans like “Amar neta, tumarneta, Sheikh Mujib, Sheikh Mujib.” That generation of people of Bangladesh unequivocally acknowledged the sacrifices made by the Indian army to liberate the country from the atrociously brutal Pakistani army. Now, contrast that frozen historical moment with the August 2024 images coming out of Bangladesh after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country. Sheikh Mujib’s statues are being pulled down, demolished, urinated upon, and portraits and murals defaced. The new interim government led by Nobel laureate Professor Mohammad Yunus is leaving no stone unturned to erase the legacy of Sheikh Mujib by removing his pictures from every conceivable political and historical space in Bangladesh, literally and metaphorically. The unelected interim government has even decided to remove Mujib’s picture from the currency notes. The forces that collided with the brutal Pakistani army in its genocidal campaign in erstwhile East Pakistan, namely Jamat-e-Islami, Hefazat-e-Islam, and many other such fundamentalist fringe elements, are now part of the mainstream politics of Bangladesh, and some of them are even picked up as advisors in the interim government led by a Nobel laureate for peace, Professor Mohammad Yunus. China, the country that prevented Bangladesh’s entry into the UNO for three years after its birth (Bangladesh became a member of the UNO on 17th September 1974), is now one of the allies and partners in economic and security cooperation. Paradoxically, the interim government is now pandering to Pakistan, forgetting the genocide it had perpetrated on its people. There is no semblance of gratitude left in the present generation of Bangladeshi youth about India’s contribution to liberate their country from a brutally exploitative Pakistani military junta. The air in Bangladesh is fouled by an intense hatred for India. The advisors to the interim government are systematically fuelling the anti-India hatred by doing things like getting closer to forces inimical to India’s interest. The arrest and subsequent denial of bail to the former ISKON monk Chinmoy Krishna Das evoked a strong protest from India. Bangladesh termed it as an interference in its internal matter. But the stomping on the Indian national flag in the educational institutions in Bangladesh by the students was an act of extreme provocation that resulted in the avoidable vandalism of the Bangladesh consular office in Agartala. The attack on the minorities in general and Hindus in particular continues right under the watch of the Yunus government, and there is a complete absence of law and order in Bangladesh now. Hindus and other minorities live under constant fear of unprecedented intimidation, extortion, and violent attacks on their homes and business concerns, and the government, as usual, is in the denial mode.
The intense hatred for India in Bangladesh is not a new phenomenon. This anti-India rhetoric has its origin in the partition era. The Muslim League ranted anti-Hindu rhetoric to sway the population to vote for Pakistan in the 1946 provincial elections. The people of East Pakistan realised the imposition of an alien colonial culture and economic exploitation and attained independence after a bloody struggle in 1971. During the 1971 Liberation War, the Muslim League elements formed a new constituency in the form of Jamat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam to assist the Pakistani army in its genocidal campaign against the Bengalis and the minorities. The irony is that the parties that opposed the creation of Bangladesh and had sided with the colonial forces are now a political force to reckon with in the political spectrum of Bangladesh. It is incomprehensibly surprising and also saddening that the civil society, which should have played a constructive role by presenting the historical facts objectively, has either preferred to remain silent or join the anti-India bandwagon. When a mobocracy rules the country, sanity and rationality become its first casualty. The majority in Bangladesh perceives India as a threat. This generation of Bangladeshis is ignorant of the historical facts and believes in a narrative very subtly peddled by forces inimical to India. The majority of Bangladeshis are victims of the Mexican Syndrome, a phenomenon where a smaller nation feels overshadowed by a major neighbouring country. What made Bangladeshis perceive India as a threat still remains a puzzle to Indians. If India had any expansionist territorial ambition on Bangladesh, as is the general perception, it would have easily done so in 1971 by not withdrawing the army after capturing Dhaka and forcing 93,000 Pakistani soldiers to surrender. But India did not do so. Still, Bangladeshis, quite inexplicably, feel that India is a threat. There are many so-called self-acclaimed intellectuals (mostly at Dhaka University) who fuel such anti-India rhetoric by propounding preposterous ideas like having a nuclear deterrent by allying with Pakistan or destabilising India’s Northeast by encouraging separatist movements there. These Bangladeshi intellectuals do not realise that their anti-India rhetoric sounds more like a rabbit threatening an elephant of trampling it over. Facts are quite contrary to it. The 1974 India-Bangladesh land border agreement, which was revised again in May 2015 and ratified by the Indian parliament on 6th June, 2015, through the 100th amendment to the constitution, was enough to nip in the bud any perception of India as a threat to Bangladesh’s territorial sovereignty. According to the land agreement, India gave away 111 Indian enclaves covering 17,160 acres of land and in return received 51 Bangladeshi enclaves covering 7,110 acres of land. In a way, India gave away more land than it got in return, a rare feat of generosity considering India’s size and heft. Yet the self-styled Bangladeshi intellectuals spread the canard that India is eager to gobble up Bangladesh. It’s a fact that gratitude is not a factor in international politics; Bangladesh’s present attitude toward India is an example of it. But a country so effectively ‘India locked’ can stoop to such an extent of ingratitude is beyond comprehension. Many in Bangladesh accuse India of siding with dictatorial Sheikh Hasina, and since Hasina is hated, India is collateral damage. Most anti-India Bangladeshis forget that governments deal with governments in whatever way they have come to power. China too was dealing with the Hasina regime. During her 15 years of rule, China remained the largest supplier of defence equipment to Bangladesh. Why don’t the students of Bangladeshi universities trample over the national flag of China for having links with the Hasina regime? Many in Bangladesh argue that the Teesta River water-sharing dispute has created an anti-India feeling among the people. There are many countries in the world that live with river water-sharing disputes but never come to this level of hate-mongering like it is done in Bangladesh.
In the field of trade and commerce, who will be at a disadvantage if India-Bangladesh relations further deteriorate? Bangladesh is dependent on India for almost everything. It imports from India items like cereals, fresh vegetables, electronic equipment, medicine, steel, cotton, sugar, refined petroleum products, and plastic. Bangladesh exports readymade garments to India. If the relationship nosedives any further and India is forced to review its trade relationship with Bangladesh, it will result in an unprecedented inflation in that country. If India stops cotton exports to Bangladesh, which is 35% of the total exports, its garment industry will suffer heavily, which in turn will affect its GDP adversely, and the rate of unemployment will rise. What if Bangladesh imports cotton from other countries? Yes, it can, but there will be a huge price difference because of its geographical proximity to India, and its garment industry will lose its competitive edge. What will happen to the cotton growers in India if it stops exporting to Bangladesh? Many economists are of the opinion that stopping cotton exports to Bangladesh will be beneficial to India, as it will stabilise cotton prices in the Indian market, which in turn will be helpful to the domestic garment industry. In the last 8 years, India has given aid worth $8 billion to Bangladesh’s developmental projects in road, rail, shipping, and port construction. During Sheikh Hasina’s regime from 2009 to July 2024, Bangladesh’s economy rose at the rate of 6.3%, and its GDP grew from $123 billion to $455 billion. With her departure from the scene, Bangladesh has been pushed into political instability and social disintegration. The new interim regime seems to be pro-China and pro-Pakistan, which definitely has raised alarms in India’s security establishment. But can Bangladesh afford to be a hostile neighbour to India?