Editorial

India's tightrope walk over Russia-Ukraine stand-off

The expectation of the United States that India would stand by its side in case of an impending Russian invasion of Ukraine has pushed New Delhi into a diplomatic maze that is not easy to negotiate.

Sentinel Digital Desk

The expectation of the United States that India would stand by its side in case of an impending Russian invasion of Ukraine has pushed New Delhi into a diplomatic maze that is not easy to negotiate. India will have to weigh options of bilateral relations with the US and Russia, but it cannot ignore strategic implications of Russia and China moving closer and leading to the Russia-China-Pakistan axis posing a larger security threat in the Indo-Pacific region. US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price in Wednesday's briefing said that there was a discussion of Russia and Ukraine in the context of the Quad meeting with India, Japan and Australia and one of the core tenets of the Quad is to reinforce the rules-based international order, and that is "a rules-based order that applies equally in the Indo-Pacific as it does in Europe, as it does anywhere else." The US hoped that India is committed to that "rules-based international order". The US spokesperson also said that there is any number of tenets to that order and one of them is that "borders cannot be redrawn by force, that large countries cannot bully small countries; that only the people of a particular country can be in a position to choose their foreign policy, their partnerships, their alliances, their associations." US claims that there are more than 150,000 troops deployed inside the Russian territory close to Ukraine border and that the US was "doing everything" it can, to "forestall the possibility, to deter, to prevent Russian aggression" of Ukraine. Russia withdrawing some troops triggered a glimmer of hopes of de-escalation of the tension over the US-Russia brinkmanship over possible US-led NATO's plan to expand its military infrastructure in Ukraine. India has so far avoided taking sides in the Russia-US standoff over Ukraine. It abstained from a procedural vote in UN Security Council on whether or not discussions were required on the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine and called for de-escalation on the issue by taking into account the "legitimate security interests of all countries." As the United States requested the meeting to discuss Russian build-up, it perceived India's position to be in favour of Russia which explains US building pressure on India to take its side. The strategic relationship between India and Russia reached a new high during a visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi on December 6, 2021, for the 21st India-Russia Annual Summit. A Joint Statement issued by the two countries on the Summit stated that "the completion of 5 decades of the 1971 Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation and 2 decades of Declaration on Strategic Partnership is symbolic of the long-standing and time-tested India-Russia relations characterized by mutual trust, respect for each other's core national interests and similarity of positions on various international and regional issues." Both sides noted with satisfaction the successful implementation of the 2011-2020 Long-Term Programme for Military and Technical Cooperation and welcomed the signing of a new long-term programme for the period 2021-2031, it added. The two countries also agreed to explore mutually acceptable and beneficial areas of cooperation in third countries, especially in Central Asia, South East Asia and Africa. The Summit noted a 38% increase in bilateral trade between India and Russia in the first half of 2021 over the same period in 2020 and set the target of 30 billion US dollars by 2025. The US, on the other hand, is the largest trading partner of India with a trading volume of 67.41 billion US dollars. Besides, bilateral relation between India and US was described at the Summit level meeting in 2016 as an "Enduring Global Partners in the 21st Century." With China adopting an expansionist agenda in the Asian neighbourhood and Indo-Pacific and seeking to escalate border dispute with India, deepening strategic relations with the US is a natural choice for India. The US and China relation deteriorating over a range of issues including the Chinese actions in the Indo-Pacific brings India and United States to come closer to a strategic defence relationship. India, however, is aware of the economic consequences of escalations of the Russia-Ukraine tensions leading to war. India imported 1.8 million tonnes of coal, from Russia in 2021. India meets 80% of its oil demand through import and stated importing from Russia as part of its strategy to reduce dependence on OPEC countries and to stabilize volatile oil prices which sparked inflation. It is India's strategic and economic interests sooner the Russian-Ukraine situation deescalates through diplomatic efforts the better but in the event of an outbreak of war over the Russian invasion of Ukraine India's choices will be limited given its strategic interests with China and Pakistan as aggressive neighbours. India is walking the tightrope between its deepening bilateral relations with the US and Russia on one extreme and its strategic goals.