It is difficult to say as to what extent
it may result in electoral success for Jamaat – Amitava Mukherjee
As Bangladesh is expected to move to election mode in early next year, the centre piece of attraction is the Jamaat-e-Islami, a political-religious-cultural organization which has again found its feet after the deregistration and ban on its activities were lifted recently. The Awami League has been proscribed. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is riven with lawlessness and land-grabbing charges. The National Citizen Party (NCP) is struggling with internal dissensions. But the Jamaat, having a cadre base and a structured organization, makes an interesting case study at this juncture.
How many votes can the Jamaat-e-Islami get in the coming election? Opinion polls vary widely. Past records say that Jamaat used to have a narrow voter base. In the 1986 general election it got only 4.61 per cent of popular votes. However, the party reached its high water mark in 1991 when it gathered 12 per cent of votes. In 1996 it again slumped to 8.62 per cent. In 2001 Jamaat’s vote percentage further came down to 4.28 per cent. In 2008 the figure was approximately 4.7 per cent. It shows that on average Jammat-e-Islami is supported by approximately 4 per cent of the country’s population. So electorally speaking, it remains far behind even becoming a pressure group.
But the picture will certainly be different in 2026. It appears that the Jamaat has learnt a lot from this year’s tectonic political shift in Bangladesh. It is now rebranding itself, which, however cosmetic it may appear, stands as the most important political shift in recent days in Bangladesh. During his recent visit to the United States, Shafiqur Rahman, the Ameer of the Jamaat-e-Islami, said, “From 1947 to this day, 22 October, 2025, at 8:11 pm, whoever has suffered any pain or harm because of us... I seek forgiveness unconditionally, whether from an individual or from the entire nation. It makes no difference.”
He made a lengthy statement in the United States, and it merits reproduction because Jamaat’s attempted reorientation is the most important political development in present-day Bangladesh. Rahman continued, “We are human beings, and our organisation is a human one. Out of a hundred decisions, ninety-nine might be right – one could be wrong. If that wrong decision caused harm to the nation, then why should it be difficult for us to ask forgiveness for that?”
Then Shafiqur Rahman goes a step further. “I have never said in my life—nor have my colleagues or seniors—that we are beyond mistakes... For every mistake we have made, knowingly or unknowingly, we are grateful to those who corrected us. And to those who have been hurt by our mistakes, we sincerely apologise,” Rahman said.
Finally he comes to the most important question – Jamaat’s role during the Bangladesh Liberation War. Rahman admitted that Jammat had played a role during the Liberation War but stopped short of describing what kind of a role it was. “Did Jamaat have a role in 1971? Of course it did. Jamaat at that time believed that Pakistan should remain united. But even then, many Awami League leaders worked under the Pakistan government, drew salaries, and their family members received rations and other benefits from the government.”
Referring to the Awami League leaders in the context of 1971 is meaningless. Awami League as a party was the principal enemy of the junta-led Pakistani government. Rahman has also cleverly sidestepped Jamaat’s involvement with Al-Badr and Al-Shams, the two dreaded organisations which were involved in killings of innocent individuals. But in spite of all these, there is no denying the fact that the changed political situation in Bangladesh has pushed Jamaat to a prominent seat. The lifting of the ban on its activities has given it a new lease of life.
Several speculations are going on in Bangladesh over Jamaat’s electoral future. This time it is highly possible that Jamaat’s vote percentage will increase significantly as the Awami League will not be in the electoral picture. For the first time since 1971, the Islamic Chhatra Shibir, the students’ wing of the Jamaat in Bangladesh, has swept the Dhaka University Students’ Union (DAKSU) election, claiming 23 of 28 seats. The Shibir juggernaut did not stop there. It continued to dominate students’ union elections in Chittagong, Rajshahi and Jahangirnagar universities. Is it for this reason that Jamaat has included the point of proportional representation in its list of five-point demands? Several opinion poll surveys are also predicting a big jump in Jammat’s vote percentage in the forthcoming national election. A survey conducted by Innovision Consulting in September last year gave Jammat-e-Islami around 30 percent of popular votes. However, another survey by the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development predicts 10 per cent to 11 per cent of votes for Jamaat. However, results of the recent DAKSU election indicate that Jamaat’s popularity has increased considerably among the young generation. A survey by the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling estimates that around 22 per cent of voters under the age of 35 support the Jamaat-e-Islami. But another survey by the International Republican Institute gives the BNP 30 per cent of popular votes, while it gives the Jamaat-e-Islami 26 per cent of votes – a clear 4 per cent lead for the BNP.
However, some columnists in Bangladesh have expressed their reservations about the genuineness of election surveys in their country. Giving 30 per cent of votes to Jamaat by Innovision Consulting seems to be outlandish in this context. It may be interesting to note that the organization has given the interim government of Mohammed Yunus a 78 per cent approval on the question of its performance. More balanced surveys, however, point out that the number of undecided voters is increasing… The support base of the Jamaat has certainly broadened, but that may not be as broad as some surveys depict or as some Jamaat leaders may dream of. Another survey conducted by the Bangladesh Youth Leadership Centre predicts 20 per cent of votes for the BNP among the Gen-Z voters to be trailed by Jamaat (17 per cent). But what will the other 63 per percent do? In order to endear itself not just to these 63 per cent but to the general electorate as a whole, Jamaat-e-Islami is trying to present itself as the Islamic Left.
However, Jamaat’s leadership is aware that the party’s role during the country’s Liberation War may act as its baggage. That is why Shafiqur Rahman, the Ameer, is desperately trying to whitewash Jamaat’s past deeds. Here it is also pertinent to note that although the election is close at hand, Jamaat has not yet been able to form a formal alliance of like-minded parties, while the Jamiat-Ulema-e-Bangladesh has already declared that it will not participate in any alliance where the Jamaat-e-Islami is a partner. Now it is to be seen whether the Jamiat Ulema can stick to its decision till the end.
As polity in Bangladesh is fragmented, perhaps Jamaat will not be able to carry all the Islamic parties with itself. Secondly, there may be dissensions within the Jamaat in the future. Critics aver that Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman’s public apology for whatever his party has done during the Liberation War and whatever pain it has caused to the people of the country is cosmetic. Even if we do not enter into any value judgement on this point, it cannot be denied that there is another strong current of opinion within the Jamaat leadership which favours and will continue to favour Islamisation. In July last year, Jamaat’s Nayeb-e-Ameer and former MP Mujibur Rahman had said that the national parliament should implement Islamic laws only and there should be no place for any ideas or systems made by man.
More sinister, however, are reports of a meeting which Shafiqur Rahman had held with top Qawmi scholars of Bangladesh in August last year. The meeting discussed and expressed open support for establishing a country based on Islamic rules. There Rahman stressed the necessity of unity among the persons present and the beliefs they held. According to Dhaka Tribune, a reputed newspaper of Bangladesh, Maulana Azizul Huq Islamabadi, joint general secretary of the Hefazat-e-Islam, Bangladesh, had hailed the role played by Shafiqur Rahman for bringing together scholars of all Markaz and appealed to all concerned for carrying forward this unity to the time when Bangladesh goes to poll.
So there are contradictions in various policy statements of the Jamaat. But it is now savouring the fragrance of a good electoral performance, if not a victory. That is why Jamaat is planning to field candidates from minority communities to gain their confidence. In recent times the party has allowed its female workers to publicly participate in political programmes. Shafiqur Rahman has even promised women the right to work outside and their freedom to choose their own clothing. Rahman’s statement indicates that Jamaat is trying to get over self-contradictions, however tactical it may be.
But Jamaat will have to counter some in-built dynamism of Bangladeshi polity which has always hindered its electoral success. Bangladesh has a strong Sufi tradition which quietly fosters inter-community bonhomie. Some religion-based parties in Bangladesh are aware of it, and that is why Bangladesh witnessed the destruction of Sufi shrines in the wake of the change of guards in Dhaka after Hasina Wazed left the country. Even several country fairs associated with the memory of Lalan Fakir, the great humanist, were forcibly stopped. It is true that there were instances of misrule during the time the Awami League was in power in Bangladesh. It is also true that in the coming election Jamaat will enjoy some advantage arising out of it. But it is difficult to say as to what extent it may result in electoral success for Jamaat.
(The author is a commentator on current affairs.)