Dr. Pranjit Saikia
(dr.pranjit1981@gmail.com)
The Assam bye-election results, declared on November 23, 2024, have emerged as a critical focal point in assessing the political trajectory of the state, especially in the wake of the Lok Sabha elections held earlier in the year. These outcomes have triggered a robust discourse on the evolving political landscape, the strategic effectiveness of the opposition, and the deepening disillusionment among voters toward the ruling party. Regarded as a precursor to the 2026 Assembly elections, the bye-elections offered a pivotal test for both political factions. For the ruling party, they represented an opportunity to consolidate its position and regain eroded popularity. For the opposition, they were a chance to galvanize a fragmented coalition and capitalize on burgeoning anti-incumbency sentiment.
However, the results underscored a stark dichotomy in the fortunes of the two sides. The ruling party achieved sweeping victories in all five constituencies, a triumph reflecting a meticulously orchestrated and unified campaign. In contrast, the opposition—led primarily by the Congress—suffered a debacle that highlighted its disarray, strategic miscalculations, and an overinflated sense of political confidence. A granular analysis of the electoral dynamics reveals profound insights into Assam’s political direction, particularly concerning the disintegration of the opposition and the ruling party’s strategic recalibrations.
The ruling party’s success can be attributed, in part, to its ability to internalize lessons from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, notably its humiliating defeat in Jorhat. In that instance, the party’s confrontational and hubristic approach alienated voters, despite concerted efforts to frame the constituency as a symbol of its political prestige. Chastened by this failure, the party undertook a comprehensive strategic overhaul in the by-elections. Eschewing aggressive tactics, it adopted a more nuanced approach, emphasizing smaller, localized gatherings and direct voter engagement. This recalibrated strategy proved not only effective but also instrumental in projecting the ruling party as a responsive and united political force. The BJP-led alliance further cemented its dominance by presenting an unbroken front, with coalition partners actively integrated into the campaign. This collective strength and cohesion emerged as the cornerstone of its decisive victories.
Conversely, the opposition’s campaign was mired in fragmentation, mismanagement, and a palpable lack of strategic vision. Nowhere was this dysfunction more evident than in Behali, where the Congress opted to field its own candidate despite the alliance’s endorsement of the CPI(ML) nominee. This act of defiance fractured the opposition coalition and laid bare the Congress’ self-serving priorities. By undermining the alliance’s collective strength, the Congress effectively sabotaged the opposition’s prospects, exacerbating internal rifts and alienating an electorate that had initially placed its trust in a united front. The episode in Behali epitomized the opposition’s broader failure to coalesce around a cohesive agenda, further diminishing its credibility in the eyes of voters.
The bye-election outcomes also revealed the perils of the Congress’ overconfidence in the aftermath of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Although the party retained three seats in both the 2019 and 2024 general elections—evidencing no substantial gains—its leadership appeared emboldened by a perceived narrative positioning the Congress as the principal alternative to the BJP. This misplaced optimism precipitated a reckless and overly ambitious post-election strategy, characterized by an insistence on unilateral action rather than collaborative engagement within the coalition. The consequences of this hubris were not confined to Assam alone; similar miscalculations plagued the Congress’ performance in Haryana, amplifying its vulnerability on a national scale.
The Congress’ strategic missteps underscore a critical reality: The party lacks the organizational infrastructure and electoral heft necessary to challenge the BJP’s well-oiled political machinery on its own. Its decision to prioritize individual ambition over coalition dynamics not only undercut the modest gains achieved in the Lok Sabha elections but also exposed its inability to navigate the complexities of alliance politics. Recent electoral outcomes in states like Maharashtra further corroborate this assessment, demonstrating that direct confrontations with the BJP have invariably yielded disastrous results for the Congress. If the party harbours aspirations of mounting a credible challenge to the BJP, it must abandon its insular approach and actively cultivate cooperative relationships with its allies.
The Assam bye-elections serve as a microcosm of this broader political predicament. In constituencies such as Behali, Samaguri, and Dholai, the Congress faced direct head-to-head contests with the BJP and suffered resounding defeats. These losses reinforce the imperative for collaborative opposition strategies in a political landscape where no single party possesses the capacity to unseat the ruling coalition. Public scepticism surrounding the opposition’s ability to present a united front has only deepened amid internecine conflicts and factionalism. Instead of offering a coherent alternative to the BJP, opposition parties remain ensnared in internal disputes, forfeiting their credibility and electoral viability in the process.
Despite these setbacks, the Congress has reiterated its commitment to forging a reinvigorated opposition alliance ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections. However, this renewed emphasis on coalition politics coincides with escalating tensions between the Congress and key allies such as the Raijor Dal, whose confrontational stance further complicates efforts to present a unified electoral platform. These fractures within the alliance raise profound questions about the opposition’s capacity to mobilize effectively and articulate a cohesive vision capable of resonating with voters. Can the opposition transcend its internecine divisions to address public grievances meaningfully? And if not, how can it hope to regain the trust of an increasingly disenchanted electorate?
One unequivocal lesson from the bye-elections is the electorate’s unequivocal rejection of political overreach and hubris. In both the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the recent bye-elections, voters decisively rebuffed political overzealousness, whether manifested by the BJP in Jorhat or the Congress in Behali. This recurring theme underscores the primacy of restraint, pragmatism, and issue-based politics in resonating with the electorate.
The Assam bye-elections thus offer a sobering reminder to both the ruling and opposition parties of the imperatives of strategic unity, tempered ambition, and effective collaboration. Failure to adapt to these evolving political realities risks further alienation from the electorate and diminishing public support. For both factions, the path forward hinges on their willingness to internalize these lessons and recalibrate their approaches to align with the shifting demands of the political landscape.