Dipak Kurmi
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com.)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's forthcoming visit to Manipur carries a weight of expectation that goes far beyond a routine political tour. It comes at a moment when the state is still reeling from more than two years of unrest, sectarian violence, and political impasse. His arrival, expected just over a week after the Centre's announcement of new infrastructure and security initiatives, will test the government's ability to project both firmness and flexibility in one of India's most sensitive frontier regions.
At the heart of the present moment lies the decision to extend the Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with two influential Kuki-Zomi-Hmar armed conglomerates - the Kuki National Organisation (KNO) and the United People's Front (UPF). The pact, long delayed due to resistance from the Manipur state government, represents a calculated effort by New Delhi to stabilise a volatile region where multiple ethnic identities collide and competing territorial claims have created a combustible atmosphere. For nearly one and a half years, former Chief Minister N. Biren Singh's administration had refused to renew the SoO, reflecting not only political compulsions within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) but also a deeply entrenched suspicion of the Kuki-Zomi armed groups' ultimate intentions.
The Centre's decision to finally override these objections is not merely a bureaucratic concession; it is a deliberate recalibration of India's conflict management strategy. The agreement now carries with it conditions designed to prevent the misuse of ceasefire arrangements. Groups are bound to respect "ground rules", and violations will be dealt with severely. This approach simultaneously buys time for peace-building while signalling that indulgence has its limits. By using the classic Kautilyan quartet of statecraft - persuasion, concession, deterrence, and coercion - the Centre has sought to frame the SoO as a contract that enforces accountability while still offering political space for negotiation.
The infrastructure component of the Centre's strategy is equally significant. By committing to speed up the widening and maintenance of National Highway-2, the lifeline connecting Imphal to Nagaland and further into mainland India, the government has targeted both practical and symbolic objectives. On the one hand, it promises relief to commuters and traders frequently trapped by road blockades that have become instruments of political bargaining in Manipur. On the other, it asserts the state's authority in guaranteeing mobility and connectivity, which are indispensable for the restoration of normalcy. Highways in the Northeast are never mere transport arteries; they are political statements of presence and sovereignty.
Yet, the road ahead remains precarious. Extending the SoO is not an end in itself but a tactical pause in a longer contest over territory and identity. The unresolved question of separate administrative arrangements for Kuki-Zomi areas continues to hang over negotiations like an unsheathed sword. If New Delhi concedes too much, it risks alienating the Meitei community, already aggrieved by perceptions of demographic imbalance and territorial erosion. If it resists too strongly, the insurgent groups could relapse into violence, derailing years of fragile progress.
This is where Modi's leadership will be tested most visibly. His government has pitched the latest measures as a reaffirmation of the "territorial integrity of Manipur", a phrase that resonates deeply in the valley but is often contested in the hills. By standing firm on this point, Modi underscores that while dialogue is essential, the red lines of sovereignty and constitutional order will not be crossed. The Centre's stance is also fortified by the presence of Central paramilitary forces, empowered under the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), which continue to dominate security operations. While AFSPA remains controversial for its human rights implications, it provides New Delhi with a coercive lever to enforce compliance in times of crisis.
But governance in Manipur cannot rest on force alone. The bitter truth is that the SoO groups, despite their history of violence, have grown into political stakeholders with constituencies, expectations, and bargaining power. Ignoring them is no longer an option. Indeed, their very integration into a framework of rules - however imperfectly enforced - is a step toward institutionalising dialogue. The challenge for Modi is to ensure that such institutionalisation does not merely legitimise armed groups but gradually redirects them toward civilian politics.
Observers note that this balancing act resembles a high-wire performance. Too much accommodation could embolden armed actors to expand their demands, while too much coercion risks provoking fresh waves of insurgency. The long-term solution lies in a sustained political process that transcends episodic deals. This means addressing socio-economic grievances in the hill districts, ensuring representation in state institutions, and tackling the structural inequalities that have allowed insurgencies to perpetuate themselves for decades.
The timing of Modi's visit, therefore, is crucial. Coming after the brutal violence of May 3, 2023-when ethnic clashes tore apart the fragile fabric of coexistence-his presence is meant to reassure ordinary citizens that peace is not a distant dream but a practical goal. It is also a message to security forces that their role is not just to quell disturbances but to create the conditions for genuine reconciliation. By calling out those who fuel disorder for political gain, Modi aims to reinforce the legitimacy of democratic institutions while isolating spoilers.
The larger geopolitical context cannot be ignored. Manipur, lying on India's border with Myanmar, sits astride a corridor that is critical to the success of New Delhi's Act East Policy. Any prolonged instability here threatens to undermine connectivity projects such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project. Both are designed to integrate the Northeast into broader Asian supply chains. Thus, stabilising Manipur is not only a matter of domestic security but also of strategic positioning in an Indo-Pacific order increasingly shaped by great power rivalries.
The paradox is that while India emphasises its role as a responsible stakeholder in global democracy, it faces a persistent democratic deficit at home when violent groups hold sway. Restoring confidence in constitutional governance requires consistency in the application of the law, not selective enforcement. To this end, Modi must strike a balance between delivering justice for victims of violence, punishing perpetrators without bias, and engaging insurgents in a credible dialogue process. The credibility of the Indian state depends on its ability to demonstrate fairness to all communities, whether Meitei, Kuki, Naga, or Hmar.
It is also worth noting that India has precedents for such balancing acts. The Mizo Accord of 1986, which successfully ended decades of insurgency in Mizoram, stands as a testament to the power of negotiation anchored in inclusivity, development, and trust-building. While Manipur's situation is more complex, with multiple armed groups and sharper ethnic divides, the principle remains the same: peace cannot be imposed; it must be constructed patiently, layer by layer.
Ultimately, Modi's visit to Manipur is not just about extending agreements or inspecting highways. It is about demonstrating political will to navigate the contradictions of peace and justice, sovereignty and accommodation. It is about telling the people of Manipur that their pain has been acknowledged, their demands heard, and their future safeguarded. The success or failure of this mission will reverberate far beyond the state's borders, shaping not only the trajectory of Northeast India but also the credibility of India's governance model in the eyes of the world.
Manipur stands today at the crossroads of fragility and opportunity. Modi's challenge is to ensure that the path chosen leads not to renewed cycles of violence but to a horizon where coexistence, development, and dignity are more than promises-they are lived realities.