Dipak Kurmi
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com.)
The geopolitical landscape of South Asia, particularly along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, is undergoing a profound transformation, one that no observer could have reasonably predicted. As India faces mounting challenges from an increasingly volatile Bangladesh to its east, Pakistan is grappling with the unexpected fallout from the shifting dynamics between itself and Afghanistan to the west. The Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship, once rooted in shared history and mutual interests, has soured to an alarming degree. The Taliban, once a significant strategic ally of Pakistan, now stands in opposition on several fronts. The profound shift in this relationship is not just a matter of strained ties but a full-fledged crisis with military exchanges and rising tensions along the Durand Line. This article seeks to unravel the roots of this breakdown, explore its unfolding consequences, and assess the potential trajectory of this new geopolitical conflict.
The historical context of the Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship is crucial to understanding the present crisis. The Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan is inextricably linked to Pakistan’s historical strategic interests. During the late 20th century, in the aftermath of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan, alongside the United States and Saudi Arabia, played a pivotal role in arming and supporting the Afghan resistance, most notably the Pashtun-dominated groups that would later evolve into the Taliban. These militants were fostered in refugee camps along the porous Afghanistan-Pakistan border and were ideologically motivated to resist foreign occupation, first by the Soviets and later by the U.S. and NATO forces.
By the time the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 1996, Pakistan had established significant influence over the group. The Taliban’s resistance to the U.S. occupation, which lasted nearly two decades, was supported by Pakistan through logistical, material, and moral assistance. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, a moment of perceived victory for the Af-Pak axis, was expected to strengthen Pakistan’s strategic position. Yet, this expectation has not materialised, and several factors are at play in explaining why this has occurred.
First, the Taliban’s vision for Afghanistan’s future is no longer aligned with Pakistan’s strategic interests. For decades, Pakistan’s policy toward Afghanistan was shaped by its desire to exert influence through supporting Islamist factions. However, the return of the Taliban to power has changed the regional calculus. The Afghan Taliban is now driven by its own ideological victories, first over the Soviets and later over the Americans and NATO forces. This self-confidence feeds into a broader sense of Afghan nationalism, particularly the rejection of the Durand Line, the colonial-era border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This line, which Pakistan regards as the internationally recognised boundary, has never been acknowledged by Afghanistan, and its refusal to accept it as legitimate is a significant point of tension.
A further complication lies in Pakistan’s expectation that the Taliban would act against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a terrorist group that operates out of Afghanistan and targets Pakistan. Instead, the Afghan Taliban has offered sanctuary to the TTP and allowed them to operate freely within Afghan borders. This shift has strained the already fragile relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban. The Taliban’s lack of cooperation, combined with ideological differences and competing regional aspirations, has led to a breakdown in trust.
At the heart of this growing rift is the Taliban’s ambition to lead the global Islamic movement, a vision that aligns them in competition with Pakistan. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan now see themselves as potential leaders of the Muslim world, competing for ideological legitimacy. This ideological rivalry has exacerbated tensions, particularly as the Taliban seeks to expand its influence beyond Afghanistan’s borders.
In addition to ideological and territorial disputes, the Taliban’s relationship with India has evolved in a surprising manner. While Pakistan has long seen itself as the chief regional power and defender of Islam, the Taliban’s interest in cultivating relations with India has raised eyebrows in Islamabad. Afghanistan, under the Taliban’s rule, sees India as an important partner in securing regional economic support, especially given Pakistan’s inability to provide sufficient assistance. Many Afghans have positive perceptions of India, based on its open-door policy for medical treatment and better quality of life. This economic and diplomatic shift poses a direct challenge to Pakistan, which has historically viewed India as its primary adversary in the region.
Moreover, the Taliban’s growing relations with both China and Russia further complicate Pakistan’s position. These two major powers have increasingly supported the Taliban’s government, and their involvement provides Afghanistan with international legitimacy that Pakistan has failed to gain. This development threatens Pakistan’s long-standing strategic depth doctrine, which relies on its influence over Afghanistan as a buffer against potential threats from India. With the Taliban asserting itself as an independent force, Pakistan finds itself facing a strategic dilemma that it has yet to resolve.
Compounding these issues is Pakistan’s internal security situation. The country’s military is engaged in multiple internal conflicts, notably in Balochistan and against the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which has been targeting Chinese personnel working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The overstretched military forces in the region are unable to effectively address both domestic security concerns and the growing external threat from the Taliban, leading to a precarious balance.
The conflict along the Durand Line, however, is not just about military exchanges and territorial disputes. It is a reflection of the deepening ideological divide between Pakistan and the Taliban. The Taliban’s unwillingness to cooperate with Pakistan in curbing the TTP and its hostility toward the Durand Line represent a direct challenge to Pakistan’s long-held strategic objectives in the region. The military exchanges, which have resulted in casualties on both sides, are a symptom of this larger geopolitical struggle.
As this conflict continues to evolve, it is clear that the future of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations is uncertain. Pakistan’s military strategy in Afghanistan, including potential cross-border operations, is fraught with risks. Such actions could inflame anti-Pakistan sentiment among the Afghan population and further alienate Pakistan’s Pashtun population, many of whom share ethnic ties with the Taliban. While the Taliban may not be able to defeat Pakistan militarily, their continued presence and influence in Afghanistan will have long-term consequences for Pakistan’s stability and its standing in the region.
As the situation develops, Pakistan’s primary concern must be its economic survival. The ongoing tensions with the Taliban, combined with internal security challenges and the deteriorating relationship with neighbouring India, place an undue strain on Pakistan’s resources. Should these tensions escalate, Pakistan risks finding itself embroiled in a multi-front conflict at a time when its economic and social stability is already precarious.
India, too, must assess the shifting regional dynamics in light of the growing instability along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. India’s growing relations with Afghanistan, particularly in the areas of economic assistance and regional cooperation, will likely benefit from Pakistan’s strategic focus on the Taliban. A strengthened India-Afghanistan relationship, particularly in the context of Pakistan’s growing isolation, could create new opportunities for India to exert influence in the region.
As the situation on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border continues to evolve, the need for careful diplomacy and strategic foresight is more pressing than ever. India’s response to the shifting balance of power on its western flank will require a nuanced approach, balancing economic cooperation with regional security concerns. The developing crisis on the western border could have significant implications for India, especially as it navigates its own strategic interests in the broader context of South Asian geopolitics.
The unravelling relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban marks a pivotal moment in South Asian geopolitics. The historical, ideological, and territorial rifts between these two actors will continue to shape the region’s future. As the situation remains fluid, both countries are at a crossroads, where the choices they make will reverberate beyond their borders, influencing not just their own futures but the broader dynamics of the region.