Dipak Kurmi
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com.)
In an era defined by geopolitical flux, economic realignments, and technological upheavals, the Raisina Dialogue 2025 emerged as a beacon of critical discourse on the shifting paradigms of global governance. More than a diplomatic congregation, this year’s dialogue underscored a fundamental reality—the world is witnessing the erosion of traditional power structures, the weakening of multilateral institutions, and the rise of a multipolar order where strategic autonomy has become the guiding principle of many nations. As the old world order crumbles, new alliances, economic frameworks, and technological battlegrounds take centre stage in shaping the future.
The Crisis of Multilateralism: A System in Decline
For decades, Western-led institutions dictated the global order, enforcing principles of free trade, security cooperation, and collective governance. However, Raisina 2025 laid bare the deep cracks in this system. The persistent failure of multilateral bodies to resolve conflicts, stabilise economies, and address climate change has led to a widespread loss of trust. The United States, once the cornerstone of global leadership, now navigates a landscape of strategic ambiguity. Europe remains shackled by overdependence on transatlantic security arrangements, while revisionist powers like China and Russia challenge the existing status quo.
Rather than fostering cooperation, the global order is tilting toward fragmentation. The rise of alternative financial and strategic alliances—such as BRICS and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)—signals the emergence of new poles of influence. Middle powers, including India, ASEAN nations, and Latin American economies, are asserting strategic autonomy, refusing to be mere spectators in great-power rivalries. The Indo-Pacific, a critical geopolitical theatre, epitomises this shift. Nations are now hedging their bets rather than aligning completely with any singular power. Alliances like AUKUS and the Quad reflect this growing recognition that collective security must adapt to new realities. Meanwhile, the African continent’s increasing diplomatic assertiveness through forums like the African Union and regional trade agreements suggests that a multipolar world is not just forming—it has already arrived.
Economic Reconfiguration: The End of the Dollar-Centric Order?
Economic discourse at Raisina 2025 reflected a stark new reality: globalisation is being reshaped by protectionism, strategic decoupling, and financial power shifts. The dominance of the U.S. dollar, a cornerstone of the post-Bretton Woods order, is increasingly being challenged. The push toward Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), regional trade pacts, and alternative financial institutions signals a gradual but undeniable move toward a diversified monetary ecosystem.
The ongoing economic war between the U.S. and China—encompassing tariffs, technological sanctions, and trade restrictions—has prompted middle economies to prioritize resilience over dependence on global financial centres. India, as an emerging economic powerhouse, has positioned itself at the heart of this transformation, leveraging its vast market, technological prowess, and diplomatic agility to create alternative trade corridors and financial networks. The growing irrelevance of a U.S.-China duopoly in global finance underscores the need for a multipolar economic governance structure, wherein institutions like the New Development Bank and AIIB gain greater traction.
Deglobalisation remains another key concern. Traditional benefits of an interconnected world—such as efficiency, competition, and open markets—are giving way to economic nationalism and supply chain reshoring. Recent disruptions, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and pandemics, have forced nations to prioritize self-sufficiency in critical sectors. Nowhere is this more evident than in the semiconductor industry, where countries are scrambling to establish indigenous manufacturing capacities to secure technological sovereignty.
Technology as the
New Battleground
Beyond geopolitics and economics, Raisina 2025 emphasised that the global power matrix is now being shaped by technological supremacy. Artificial intelligence, semiconductor supply chains, and rare-earth minerals are no longer just economic assets—they have become strategic weapons. The AI race, once a contest of innovation, has now evolved into a contest of control. The West’s response to China’s aggressive technological expansion remains fragmented, while nations like India craft independent digital sovereignty strategies, balancing ethical AI governance with economic competitiveness.
The semiconductor war exemplifies the larger struggle for technological self-reliance. Countries that fail to develop robust indigenous technology ecosystems risk falling behind in the global power hierarchy. The coming years will witness an aggressive race to dominate quantum computing, 6G networks, and AI-driven automation—technological domains that will redefine strategic superiority.
Cybersecurity has also ascended as a crucial aspect of global power dynamics. The rise in cyber warfare, data breaches, and misinformation campaigns has elevated digital infrastructure security to the same strategic importance as military preparedness. Raisina 2025 underscored the necessity for coordinated global responses to cyber threats, including regulatory harmonisation and enhanced cross-border intelligence-sharing mechanisms.
Climate Security: An
Existential Fault Line
Climate change, an ever-present global challenge, featured prominently in discussions at Raisina 2025. However, contradictions in global climate politics remain glaring. While developed nations advocate sustainability, their economic protectionist policies often undermine the very goals they claim to champion. The emphasis on “climate-proofing the Indo-Pacific” underscores the recognition that economic growth and sustainability must progress in tandem.
For India, this means leveraging its leadership in renewable energy, smart agriculture, and climate finance to drive a green economic transition. Yet, for developing nations, the fundamental dilemma persists—can they afford to prioritize climate goals without substantial financial and technological assistance from the West? The answer lies in pragmatic, localised solutions rather than top-down global mandates.
Maritime sustainability also emerged as a critical discussion point, particularly concerning the blue economy and the vulnerabilities of small island nations. As rising sea levels threaten to displace populations, a new category of “climate refugees” is likely to emerge, challenging traditional notions of borders and sovereignty. The dialogue reinforced the urgent need for new legal frameworks to address these evolving crises while ensuring that economic development remains sustainable.
The Middle East: Between Diplomacy and Conflict
The Raisina Dialogue reaffirmed the need for stability in the Middle East, yet deep-rooted conflicts continue to fester. China’s role in mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia signals a broader geopolitical shift, where economic pragmatism increasingly outweighs ideological divides. However, Beijing’s reluctance to extend political influence beyond trade deals highlights its cautious approach to regional entanglements.
Meanwhile, the protracted Israel-Palestine conflict underscores the diminishing efficacy of global diplomatic interventions. The two-state solution remains more aspirational than achievable, perpetuating strategic uncertainty in the region. At the same time, the Gulf’s ongoing energy transition—where oil-rich economies invest heavily in alternative energy and economic diversification—was a focal point of discussion. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are actively repositioning themselves as not just energy giants but also hubs of innovation, finance, and diplomacy, with far-reaching implications for global energy markets.
The Road Ahead: Navigating an Uncertain World
Raisina Dialogue 2025 reinforced a fundamental truth—there is no return to the old world order. Nations are no longer bound by Cold War-era alignments; instead, they are crafting fluid, interest-driven alliances. The decline of Western-led multilateralism does not necessarily signal global instability; rather, it opens avenues for more decentralised, pragmatic, and resilient governance structures.
India, as a rising power, holds a pivotal role in shaping this transition. With its growing economic clout, technological advancements, and diplomatic acumen, it has the opportunity to influence new economic, strategic, and technological frameworks that are more inclusive and adaptive to 21st-century challenges. The future belongs to those who can balance strategic autonomy with global cooperation, economic pragmatism with sustainability, and technological innovation with ethical governance. Raisina 2025 made one thing clear—only the adaptable will thrive in this new world order.