Ranjan Kumar Padmapati
(The writer can be reached at rkpadmapati@yahoo.co.in)
Assam, including other parts of India, has experienced the driest August ever, something not known so far in recent history. Guwahati recorded the highest temperature of 38.9 degrees centigrade of the season. Due to this unprecedented dry spell throughout the country, power demand has increased by 21% in August 2023; peak demand has also touched a record of 234 GW (gigawatt =1000 MW), and a shortage of 7.26 GW has been noticed. According to Ministry of Power, electricity consumption during peak hours touched 229 GW on August 16thand 233 GW on 17th, 234.1 GW on 18th of August. This is the consequential effect of climate change: global warming. Throughout the country, there has been scanty rainfall; it is an unbearably sizzling summer. The pattern of the south-west monsoon has been drastically altered due to the EI-Nino effect. According to different climate models, the EI-Nino effect will continue for decades due to high carbon emissions, resulting in scanty rainfall, extreme weather conditions, heat waves, draughts, etc. The power demand is expected to grow at a faster pace in the decades to come as the rain recedes, strengthening the EI-Nino effect. One surprising fact now reveals that August 2023 temperatures were approximately 1.5 degrees C warmer than the average temperature from 1850 to 1900, a threshold limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016.
The sudden increase in demand is due to an increase in the usage of cooling appliances for current hot, humid days and the use of more electricity in agricultural fields to run pump sets. This is the driest August so far in more than a century, which has pushed power demand to a new height. The power share of coal-fired generation rose to 66.7% in August, the highest of a month in the last six years, as there was no alternative. Lower rainfall has led to a fall in hydro generation to 14.8% from 18.1% of the same period compared to last year (on a year-to-year basis). The generation share of coal-fired units recently increased to 74.2% in eight months compared to last year’s ending in August. The Power Ministry has stated that there has been a continuous high gap between receipt of coal and total consumption of coal at power stations. In August 2023, the gap between coal consumption and receipt at domestic coal users will be 2 lakh tonnes per day; hence, e government h has extended the mandatory blending of domestic coal for the entire financial year FY23–24, allowing 4% blending of imported coal with domestic coal. Of the 173 bigger power plants monitored, 85 plants have less than 25% stocks. Due to deficient rainfall in August, the country as a whole received only 162.7 mm of rainfall, amounting to 36% less than the Long Period Average of 254.9 mm of rainfall, leading to more coal consumption. The IBEF reports that, until April 30th, renewable energy stood at 172.54 GW (including hydro). India failed to achieve target of 175GW in Renewable Energy in 2022 though aiming to add 500GW by 2030.
In Assam too, demand has increased abruptly from 1800 MW last year to 2500 MW during the current months. Assam meets the demand mostly by outsourcing the power from different sources like the NTPC, NEEPCO, etc. Assam receives 1650MW from above sources. According to the Honourable CM, purchasing power at Rs 10 per unit to meet the shortfall will require Rs 6 crore per day to tide over the energy crisis, and the tariff will increase by Rs 1.25 per unit. In Assam, 60% of its electricity comes from hydroelectric generation. As they are designed on the run of the river, generation depends on the amount of rainfall. According to the APDCL, on September 4, demand was 2540.42 MW, which surpassed the previous record of 2534.54 MW set on August 17th. The shortfall of power is of the order of 600–910 MW per day; hence, the power cut was affected. The city of Guwahati has a demand of 430 MW but receives only 360 MW. The APDCL gets 1093 MW from NEEPCO during peak hours and 987 MW in off-peak hours. From NTPC, Assam receives 132 MW during peak hours and 129 MW during off-peak hours.
The combined capacity of generation of the APGCL is 397.6 MW, including all plants located at different locations: the Namrup Thermal Power Station, which is gas-based (119.7 MW), La Karbi Langpi Hydro Station (100 MW), Lakuwa Thermal Station (157.2 MW), and Mantriang Hydro Station (3 MW). The figures in brackets indicate the current rate of generation at those plants. At the moment, Assam’s total generation is varying roughly between 300 and 350 MW against the total demand of 2500 MW. The shortfall is met by both outsourcing and purchasing through the power trading platform, the IEX, at a higher rate. Low generation at Namrup is due to inadequate gas supply due to a faulty contract agreement to supply only 0.66 million standard cubic feet per day, but actual demand is more to meet the full requirement for full power generation of all the units at rated capacity. Now it brings some rays of hope that, at the intervention of the Honourable CM, the OIL has agreed to supply gas to the 100 MW NRPP Phase 2 and the 100 MW Namrup Gas Engine Power Project. The power demand now is increasing at a high pace; it was 2000 MW in August 2021, and in August 2023, it touched 2500 MW. If the current rate of power demand persists, the state will need 4000 MW by 2026. Assam is a very power-deficient state. The crisis of power can be understood from one more example: on September 3, 2023, the highest demand was 2417 MW and the lowest demand was 2040 MW, but the day met only 1883 MW. So there was constantly a shortage of power of the order of 450–534 MW throughout the day. On some other occasions, the shortfall of power even peaked at 700 MW. Rapid capacity addition is the only way out to meet demand. The Lower Kopili Hydro Plant of 120 MW capacity is under construction, and close monitoring is the need of the hour to reduce the gestation period. The joint OIL and Assam Government initiative to install 600 MW of solar power stations will ease the situation, but the completion schedule will be tightened. Efforts should be made to trap the micro-hydro potential available, particularly in Karbi-Anglong District and elsewhere.