Harsha Mohan Sharma
(harshasarma183@gmail.com)
Climate change is no longer confined to scientific laboratories, rising ocean temperatures or melting glaciers. Its consequences are increasingly being felt in one of the most fundamental sectors of human life—agriculture and food production. The possibility of an exceptionally strong El Nino developing in 2026 has added a new dimension to these concerns. If the ongoing climatic signals intensify as anticipated, the agricultural sector could face a complex combination of heat stress, rainfall irregularity, water scarcity and crop losses. The critical question, therefore, is not merely whether El Nino will occur, but how severely an exceptionally strong El Niño could affect agriculture—and how prepared we are to deal with its consequences.
El Nino is not an ordinary weather event. It is a large-scale climate phenomenon associated with unusual warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming alters atmospheric circulation and consequently affects rainfall, temperature and wind patterns across different parts of the world. Its impacts, however, are not uniform. While some regions may experience drought-like conditions, others may receive excessive rainfall.
For agriculture, this uncertainty itself is a major threat. Indian agriculture remains significantly dependent on the southwest monsoon. Consequently, any major alteration in the monsoon system can have serious implications for agricultural production. Research has repeatedly indicated that El Nino years can influence the amount and distribution of monsoon rainfall over India, although the relationship is neither absolute nor uniform across the country.
This distinction is important. El Nino does not automatically mean drought throughout India. Its agricultural consequences depend on the strength and timing of the event, regional climatic conditions, the Indian Ocean Dipole, local geography and the broader effects of climate change.
A farmer needs rain not merely in sufficient quantity, but at the right time and in the right amount. Rainfall arriving too late can delay sowing and transplanting. A prolonged dry spell during crop growth can reduce yields. Conversely, intense rainfall within a short period can cause waterlogging, erosion, crop lodging and flooding. Thus, the agricultural consequences of an exceptionally strong El Nino cannot be understood simply as a shortage of rainfall. Changes in the timing, intensity and distribution of rainfall may prove equally damaging.
Rice occupies a central position in India’s food system and kharif agriculture. Its productivity depends heavily on water availability, particularly during transplantation and crucial stages of crop growth. If rainfall is inadequate during transplantation, farmers may be forced to delay planting. If moisture becomes insufficient during vegetative growth, crop productivity may decline. On the other hand, excessive rainfall during the flowering or harvesting period can damage standing crops and create serious economic losses. This is particularly relevant for eastern and northeastern India, where rice cultivation is deeply connected with the monsoon. The problem becomes more complicated when rainfall becomes erratic. A season may begin with inadequate rainfall, followed by intense precipitation within a short period. Such fluctuations are often more difficult for farmers to manage than a predictable drought or a predictable wet season.
For Assam, the issue has an additional dimension. Agriculture in the state is closely linked with rainfall, rivers, wetlands and the seasonal behaviour of the Brahmaputra and its tributaries.
Water is simultaneously an essential agricultural resource and a source of destruction. When rainfall is adequate and properly distributed, it sustains agriculture. But when rivers overflow and floodwaters remain on agricultural land for prolonged periods, the same water can destroy crops within days. At the other extreme, a prolonged dry spell can reduce soil moisture and affect crop establishment and growth. Therefore, Assam must not approach the possible consequences of a strong El Nino exclusively from the perspective of drought. The state needs to prepare for greater rainfall variability, possible dry spells, intense rainfall events and the interaction between flood and drought risks. The northeastern region has previously been found to experience significant reductions in rice productivity during strong El Nino years. Such evidence should not be interpreted as a prediction of inevitable crop failure, but as a warning that the region’s agricultural vulnerability deserves much greater attention.
The impact of an exceptionally strong El Nino would not be restricted to rice. Maize, pulses, oilseeds, vegetables, fruits and other crops may also be affected by changes in temperature, soil moisture and rainfall. Maize, for instance, is particularly sensitive to heat and water stress during flowering and grain formation. Pulses may suffer when high temperatures coincide with critical reproductive stages. Vegetables and fruit crops can be affected by heat stress, irregular irrigation and increased pest and disease pressure. Excessive rainfall creates another set of problems. It can wash nutrients out of the soil, reduce oxygen availability around roots, promote fungal diseases and increase the incidence of pests. Thus, the challenge posed by El Nino is not simply one of water availability. It is a complex interaction between temperature, rainfall, soil moisture, pests, diseases and agricultural productivity.
Agriculture should not be understood merely as crop cultivation. Rural livelihoods depend equally on livestock, poultry and fisheries.
Higher temperatures can impose heat stress on cattle and other livestock, affecting feed intake, milk production, reproduction and overall health. Water shortages can intensify these problems.
Fisheries may also be affected by changes in water temperature, dissolved oxygen, water quality and aquatic ecosystems. Small-scale fish farmers and rural communities dependent on ponds, wetlands and rivers may therefore face additional risks. The impact of an exceptionally strong El Nino could consequently spread across the entire farm-to-food system, rather than remaining confined to crop fields.
Agricultural losses do not end at the farm gate. They inevitably affect markets and consumers. When production declines, supplies tighten. When supplies tighten, prices tend to rise. Food inflation can then place an additional burden on households, particularly low-income families. The international agricultural commodity market is also vulnerable to El Nino-related disruptions. Crops such as coffee, cocoa and sugar can be affected by abnormal weather conditions in major producing regions. Such disruptions can influence global prices and indirectly affect domestic markets.
For India, a decline in domestic agricultural production could increase dependence on imports and place additional pressure on food prices and inflation. Thus, the agricultural consequences of El Nino are not merely an issue for farmers. They concern food security, household expenditure, rural employment and the wider economy.
Large farmers may have better access to irrigation, improved seeds, machinery, crop insurance, credit and agricultural technology. Small and marginal farmers, however, often have very limited capacity to absorb a climate-related shock. For a small farmer, the loss of a single crop may mean debt, reduced household consumption and an inability to finance the next agricultural season. Climate variability therefore threatens not only agricultural output but also the economic resilience of rural communities. This is why climate preparedness must be treated as a matter of social justice as well as agricultural policy. There is little value in creating panic about the possibility of a strong El Nino. The appropriate response is preparedness. The first requirement is the preparation of district- and block-level climate-smart agricultural plans. Farmers need timely information about expected rainfall, temperature, dry spells and extreme weather events.
Second, adequate stocks of short-duration, drought-tolerant and climate-resilient seed varieties should be maintained. Where necessary, sowing and transplanting calendars should be adjusted according to seasonal forecasts. Third, irrigation infrastructure must be strengthened. Rainwater harvesting, farm ponds, check dams, groundwater recharge and micro-irrigation can reduce dependence on uncertain rainfall.
Fourth, crop insurance must become more accessible and responsive. Farmers should not have to wait indefinitely for compensation after a climate-related crop failure.
Fifth, weather-based agricultural advisories should reach farmers through mobile phones and other accessible platforms, preferably in local languages. A scientific forecast has little value if it does not reach the farmer in time to influence a decision.
Assam requires a dual strategy: flood resilience and drought resilience. In flood-prone areas, climate-resilient rice varieties, elevated storage facilities, community seed banks, alternative crops and improved drainage systems can reduce losses. In areas vulnerable to dry spells, small-scale irrigation, rainwater harvesting, soil-moisture conservation and short-duration crops should receive greater attention. Agricultural universities, research institutions, Krishi Vigyan Kendras, meteorological agencies and the state agriculture department must work in close coordination. The gap between scientific knowledge and the farmer’s field must be substantially reduced. The future of agriculture will depend increasingly on how effectively these institutions can convert climate information into practical agricultural decisions.
An exceptionally strong El Nino is not merely a story about unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. Its consequences can travel thousands of kilometres and eventually reach the farmer’s field — in the form of erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells, extreme heat, pest outbreaks, crop losses and rising food prices. Yet there is also reason for optimism. El Nino is not entirely unpredictable. Modern climate science can identify developing signals months in advance. This provides governments and agricultural institutions with a valuable window for early action.
The policy response, therefore, should not be centred solely on compensation after disaster strikes. It should increasingly focus on preventing or reducing losses before they occur. The farmer should not be treated merely as a recipient of relief. He or she must be recognised as the central participant in climate adaptation.
The question before us is consequently not simply: Will a Super El Nino occur? The more important question is: If it does occur, how prepared are we? If scientific forecasts reach farmers in time, if irrigation and water-conservation systems are strengthened, if crop diversification is encouraged, if climate-resilient seeds are made available, if insurance becomes genuinely farmer-friendly, and if government policies are proactive rather than reactive, then even a severe El Nino need not become an agricultural catastrophe. But if we continue to respond only after floods have destroyed crops or drought has devastated fields, climate change will make both farming and food security increasingly precarious. An exceptionally strong El Nino, therefore, should be regarded not merely as a climatic threat but as a test of our agricultural preparedness and institutional foresight.
The future of agriculture will no longer depend solely on fertile soil, adequate rainfall and the farmer’s hard work. It will increasingly depend on science, climate intelligence, water management, resilient farming practices and timely public policy. Super El Nino may be a warning from nature. Whether that warning becomes a crisis or an opportunity to reform our agricultural system will ultimately depend on how seriously we choose to prepare today.