Joyjayanta Saharia
[Captain Joyjayanta Saharia (Retd.), Indian Navy, can be reached at jsaharia@rediffmail.com]
Syria has transformed into a confusing battlefield. Starting from the Iranians to the Israelis, Saudis to the Russians, Americans to the IS mercenaries, Hezbollah, Kurds and Turks, all seem to be fascinated about being part of the Syrian war symphony in some form or the other, which is continuing endlessly.
Syria is home to some of the oldest and most advanced civilisations in the world. Thousands of years ago, groups of Semites created a series of city states in Western Asia which form present day Syria. Persians, Romans and Ottoman Turks ruled this region. Muslim Arabs came and settled in 600 AD, establishing Islam and Arabic language. In the 20th century after the First World War, Syria was under the control of France, till it got independence in 1946. Independent Syria soon became politically active and emerged as one of the prominent leaders of Arab opposition to its Jewish neighbour, Israel. Israeli military in an offensive against Syria occupied the Golan Heights in 1967 and has permanently annexed it since 1981.
Demographically, Syria is a mix of multiple faiths and tribes, with 70 percent Sunni Muslim population. President Bashar Hafez al-Assad belongs to a minority clan of Alawite which forms just 12 percent of Syrian population. President Assad’s family has been ruling the country for last 49 years after his father Hafez took power in a coup in 1970.
The Alawites were earlier known as Nusayris. The majority Sunnis did not accept them as Muslims. The Nusayris were considered backward and were looked down upon. They were constantly under threat, because of which the Nusayris later renamed themselves as Alawites (followers of Ali). The French during their rule in Syria also adopted the philosophy of ‘divide and rule’. The French enrolled the Alawites in the police and armed forces; this over the years helped the Alawites establish themselves as a major power in Syrian society.
In 1982, President Hafez Assad crushed a Muslim Brotherhood uprising (a Sunni revolt) in the city of Hama, killing over 30,000 people. This was not forgotten or forgiven by the Brotherhood. The 2011 nationwide uprising against the ruling Ba’ath Party which eventually led to the civil war appeared to be an opportunity for the Brotherhood to settle scores.
The Syrian Army was brutal against the demonstrators, killing and torturing them. The protests turned into armed rebellion with defections from the Syrian Army and participation of civilian volunteers. Assad’s government immediately received help from Iran and at a later stage from the Russians. Iran’s support to the ruling Syrian government against the Sunni rebellion was spontaneous and is understandable. The Russians, besides having a strong and long-standing diplomatic tie with Syria, has an important and strategic naval base for its Black Sea Fleet in the Syrian port city of Tartus on the Mediterranean coast, which explains their support to the Syrian government. The Hezbollahs also made a lateral entry in the war, lending support to the Syrian Army. Qatar and Saudi Arabia helped the rebel group with arms and ammunitions.
The Syrian rebels however did not have a credible central command and control structure till the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) took over the helm of the rebel forces. The rebels started to overpower the Syrian Army in the offensives, gradually occupying more territory than the Syrian government itself.
Till now, more than 4 lakh people have lost their lives in this civil war, forcing millions more to relocate and flee the country. Although the Syrian civil war appeared to be a war between the Shias and the Sunnis, the dynamics of the conflict revolved around protecting the Assad regime. With active intervention of the Russian forces, Assad regime has got back its strength and confidence, regaining control over most of Syria now.
While the civil war was raging, the Kurds in the northern part of Syria also had their share of role to fight against the IS militants, and a chance to reshape and fortify their territory, much to the dislike of the neighbouring Turks.
The Kurds are an Iranian ethnic group living in the mountainous West Asian region which spans across south-eastern Turkey, north-western Iran, northern Iraq and northern Syria. Religious diversity is a feature of the Kurdish population, majority being Sunni Muslims. The Kurds had an opportunity for an independent Kurdistan as offered after the First World War in the Treaty of Sévres, which however did not materialise. Some Kurdish nationalist organisations still seek to create an independent nation state consisting of some or all Kurdish inhabited areas, while many others campaign for greater autonomy within the existing national boundaries.
Although Kurdistan is not a sovereign and recognised state, all the countries (Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria) having Kurdish population keep a close watch on their political activities and uprisings, which tend to prop up off and on. Saddam Hussain’s regime in Iraq was the most brutal against the Kurds in history, killing them in lakhs using conventional and chemical weapons, wiping out almost 90 percent of their villages. At the end of Gulf War, the Kurds became active again; the Allied Forces created a Safe Zone for the Kurds into which entry of Iraqi forces was forbidden. This rekindled the Kurdish hope for an independent state once again. Sensing the chaos that followed the outbreak of Syrian civil war in 2011, Kurds in the northern part of Syria were prompt in establishing a Kurdish autonomous region, which they named Rojava.
The Kurds in Turkey, in full scale insurgency since 1984, have also been demanding separation from Turkey to create an independent Kurdistan. Turkey has been watchful of the Kurdish uprising in bordering Syria during the civil war, and is determined to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish state from the wreckage there, as it will further fuel the Kurdish movement inside Turkey. The presence of Americans in the northern Syrian region as part of the anti-IS operations has been an obstacle for a Turkish incursion. With the recent withdrawal of US troops (part of it) from that area, Turkish forces were swift to cross over the Syrian border to neutralise and soften the Kurdish militia in Rojava region. The Syrian Sunni Arab rebels under Turkish command have already taken control of a portion of Rojava, shearing the Kurdish supply lines.
Back in Syria, President Assad has regained confidence and a bit of peace of mind. With the Russians behind him and the rebels relatively on back foot, stability in some sense, if not peace, seems a reality. The civil war has been contained to a large extent and the battlefield also has been shrunk to Rojava size; most importantly it has shifted far to the northern border. The conflicting sides will be the Kurds backed by the Syrian forces and the Sunni rebels for control of Rojava. The Kurds although known as fierce fighters will stand nowhere in front of Turkish armour and artillery, knowing which well they have sought protection from the Syrian forces, with acceptance of command and control of Damascus in parts of Rojava. This appears to be an all win situation for President Assad with Russia as a common mentor for both Syria and Turkey, further with the toned down Kurds. The recent killing of the IS chief al-Baghdadi is another twist in favour of peace in the region.