First the good news from the Indian tea industry: the country’s overall production of tea increased by 14.71% in September 2026, reaching 184.22 million kg compared to 160.60 million kg in September 2025. According to the Tea Board, Assam alone contributed 110.90 million kg – accounting for over 60% of the total monthly production in September 2026; this is at least 3% more than that of September 2025. West Bengal also registered a 3% increase during the same period. Production in South India, however, had declined by 5%, or 8.9 million kg, in September 2026 when compared to that of September 2025. But then, there is bad news too: India’s tea exports have registered a significant decline during the first half of fiscal year 2026–27. According to the Tea Board, exports dropped 8.9% in volume during April-September 2026, falling to 128.43 million kg from 140.43 million kg in the same period last year. Consequently, total export earnings slid by 7.7%, generating Rs 4,016 crore compared to Rs 4,351 crore previously. This is primarily fuelled by severe geopolitical tensions in West Asia. As a traditional stronghold absorbing roughly 46% of Indian tea, conflicts in the region have severely disrupted primary shipping routes. Exporters face doubled transit times and a steep spike in ocean freight rates. Furthermore, climatic disruptions—including intense flood and erratic weather in Assam and West Bengal—have hindered crop output and pressured the domestic supply chain. While a marginal 1.3% increase in global price realization (averaging Rs 312.7 per kg) offered a minor cushion, it was not enough to offset the volume plunge. Shipments from South India were hit hardest, dropping over 13%, while North Indian exports fell by 6.7%. The industry now faces combined pressures of rising input costs, high shipping logistics, and delayed payment cycles.