Amitava Mukherjee
(The author is a senior journalist and commentator)
This can aptly be called the second phase of Operation Sindoor. India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) has landed Pakistan on the brink of its existence. Pakistan is now cagey too. It is trying to hide information about the growing unrest in its different parts arising out of lack of water. However, Syed Ali Zafar, a senator of Pakistan, has spilt the beans: “We will face hunger if the water crisis is not resolved soon. The Indus basin is our lifeline – three quarters of our water comes from outside (sic) Pakistan, nine out of ten people depend on this basin for their livelihood, 90 per percent of our crops rely on this water, and all our power plants and dams are built around it. “This is like a water bomb hanging over us, and we must defuse it,” said Ali Zafar during a Senate session of Pakistan last month.
The ruling clique of Pakistan understands the situation. Therefore, it has sent four letters to New Delhi requesting the latter to reconsider its decision to hold in abeyance the IWT. In addition, Islamabad has also requested Russian President Vladimir Putin to make use of his good offices for defusing the tension between India and Pakistan. Reports are coming that large areas of Pakistan, particularly its agrarian belt, are becoming dry due to lack of water from the Indus River system. As agriculture in Pakistan is largely corporatised, it is water intensive also. So, water famine in Pakistan means not only destruction of agriculture but a total topsy-turvy of its socio-economic structure.
Let us first have a look at the IWT
The Indus basin is the second largest aquifer in the world, and here lies the second largest agricultural belt in Asia. Here is produced 90 per percent of Pakistan’s total food grains. Sixty-five percent of Pakistan’s total employment is generated here through agriculture and animal husbandry. India enjoys control over three east-flowing rivers of the Indus system, namely Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, while Pakistan has rights over waters of the three other west-flowing rivers – Indus, Chenab and Jhelum. Arithmetically, India’s share in the total Indus water regime is 41 billion cubic metres or 30 per percent of the system. Pakistan has 99 billion cubic metres of water, or 70 per percent of total waters. But there is a rider to Pakistan’s right. India can make use of west-flowing rivers’ waters for non-consumptive purposes. The Kishanganga and the Ratle hydropower stations are its examples.
Pakistan’s problem is its own creation. Even before India’s actions on the IWT, Pakistan was in a crisis situation. Its socio-economic structure is in the hands of a military-bureaucracy-feudal class clique whose only aim is to corporatise agriculture for class benefits. That is why it has introduced water-intensive agriculture, particularly sugarcane and cotton, for quick earnings, completely ignoring the daily water needs of common people. That is why Pakistan has been witnessing nowadays demonstrations against corporatised agriculture. In Sindh, common people have taken to the streets against corporate agricultural practice.
According to an estimate of the World Health Organisation, 50 to 100 litres of water per day is sufficient for a decent living for any individual. So, Pakistan needs 3.5 to 7 million acre-feet of water in total for this purpose while the country has 143 million acre-feet of water reserves. It is true that the lion’s share of these reserves comes from the Indus river system. It is also true that India’s decision to hold the IWT in abeyance has resulted in terrible paucity of water in Pakistan. But even if India desisted from taking such an action, Pakistan could not avoid a water crisis.
The reasons are twofold – first, the canal irrigation system of Pakistan is too old, built during the British colonial period. As a result, large amounts of water are lost due to seepage and mismanagement. Secondly, Pakistan spends three-fourths of its water resources for cultivating water-intensive crops – 23 per percent water for wheat, 21 per percent for high-yielding rice, 19 per percent for sugarcane and 14 per percent for cotton. Of these crops, cultivation of wheat and rice is a must for feeding the burgeoning population. But the country’s elite have a vested interest in the cultivation of sugarcane and cotton, although these two crops alone suck one third of the country’s water. But the people of Pakistan are helpless. They cannot change this scenario.
It is because the ruling clique has its hands in the sugar and cotton trade. Almost all the sugar mills of Pakistan are owned by big feudal landlord families. A recent survey has established that 40 out of 89 sugar mills of Pakistan are owned by leaders of one or other political parties. So, the nexus between feudalism and politics is clear, and the proprietors of the sugar mills, along with the owners of cotton textile industries, contribute heavily to the coffers of all political parties. About 60 per percent of Pakistan’s export earnings come from cotton textiles. So, cotton cultivation is important for holding together, even if precariously, Pakistan’s crumbling economy and dwindling foreign exchange reserves. To continue with the corporate cultivation of cotton, the army has now taken over entire operations in this sector. The result is disastrous. Through cotton cultivation and cotton textiles production for foreign markets, Pakistan exports 13 million acre-feet of water also.
So, water is a very good weapon in India’s hands as Pakistan is reeling under water-related pressures. Drought is a regular phenomenon in Sindh and Baluchistan. In fact, 40 per percent of deaths in Pakistan above the normal average rate of death occur due to unavailability of clean drinking water. In Karachi, many areas of the city do not have any water supply system. People in those localities have no other way but to rely on municipality-supplied water tankers. For this they have to shell out big money.
One example will make it clear. In the Pakistani Punjab province, a farmer has to pay a yearly tax ranging between 400 to 550 rupees for an unlimited supply of canal water on an acre of land. But in those parts of Karachi devoid of water supply pipelines, a citizen pays anything between 3300 to 4500 rupees per week for supply of water from municipal tankers. So, it is quite natural that people’s anger is brewing up in different areas. Suspension of the Indus Water Treaty by India has only aggravated a crisis which was already there in Pakistan.