Editorial

Winter is Here

Winter is late in India this year.

Sentinel Digital Desk

Winter is late in India this year. But then, it has finally arrived. While the country experienced unprecedented and highly irregular rainfall during the middle part of the year, there was remarkably little rainfall during October, which normally cools the region. Scientists have attributed several reasons behind the late arrival of winter. While the first and foremost is the rapid decrease in forest cover across the Northeastern region, the list of other important factors includes global climate change, regional variations, and specific weather patterns. On the global front, greenhouse gas emissions are warming the atmosphere and disrupting established climate patterns. The neutral El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean have contributed to the delay in the onset of cold weather across South Asia. In Assam in particular, winter generally arrives by late October or early November. But, this year, temperatures have remained higher than usual, with people using fans till the middle of November. Erratic rainfall, which is part of the global climate change pattern, has also adversely affected the normal onset of winter. The Eastern Himalayas, which form the northern part of the Northeastern region, are rapidly warming at a rate of 0.01 to 0.04°C per year. The highest rates of warming occur in the winter, while the summer experiences cooling or even lower temperatures. Despite the erratic rainfall pattern, the number of rainy days has decreased by about 11% in recent decades, while the intensity of rainfall has increased. The distribution of rainfall has also become erratic, with a persistent dry spell in the middle of the season. The Indian Meteorological Department, meanwhile, has forecast below normal cold wave days over most parts of northwest, central, east, and northeast India, from December 2024 to February 2025, which is likely to be followed by above-normal minimum temperatures over most parts of the country. The biggest and most dangerous impact of the delayed winter and climate change, however, is seen on the Brahmaputra, with the mighty river drying up fast during the lean season. Traditionally, from time immemorial, the communities of the region have always looked at the behaviour of the rivers passing through their respective lands in order to look forward to their agricultural activities. With the Brahmaputra and several of its major tributaries drying abnormally, and the winter setting in late, things do not seem to be very encouraging on the overall economy of the region.