Dipak Kurmi
(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)
The political landscape of South Asia is currently undergoing a significant transformation as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party government takes power in Dhaka, leading to a period of renewed vigour and complex recalibration in Indo-Bangladesh relations. Historically, these two nations have shared a profound synergy, rooted in the shared blood of the 1971 Liberation War and bolstered by decades of cooperation on developmental projects and mutual security interests. However, the recent Gen Z uprising, which culminated in the dramatic removal of Sheikh Hasina from her long-held position, fundamentally altered the diplomatic equation between New Delhi and Dhaka. In the immediate aftermath of her ouster, a palpable anti-India sentiment gripped segments of the Bangladeshi populace, largely fuelled by the perception that India’s decision to provide shelter to the former Prime Minister on its soil was an act of interference or partisanship. The interim administration, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, was vocal in its displeasure, actively seeking her extradition to face a plethora of legal charges ranging from corruption to human rights violations.
A new chapter appears to be unfolding with the transition to an elected government, as evidenced by the high-stakes visit of Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman to New Delhi. This visit is far more than a routine diplomatic exchange; it serves as a symbolic and functional signal of Dhaka’s intent to bridge the widening chasm with its closest and most influential neighbour. This engagement serves as the first genuine litmus test for both administrations, allowing them to determine whether they can successfully navigate a path forward that prioritizes long-term regional stability over immediate political irritants. For India, maintaining a robust and friendly relationship with Bangladesh is not merely a choice but a strategic necessity, given the shared four thousand-kilometer border and the vital role Dhaka plays in India’s Neighbourhood First and Act East policies.
At the core of this diplomatic reset is the fundamental challenge of rebuilding trust, which has been frayed by the recent volatility in Dhaka’s domestic politics. Foreign Minister Rahman has been unequivocal in stating that his government will adhere to a policy of Bangladesh First, signalling that while cooperation is desired, it will not come at the expense of national sovereignty or perceived equity. Central to this stance is the long-standing and highly sensitive issue of the Teesta River water-sharing agreement, a matter that New Delhi must approach with extreme delicacy. For the leadership in Dhaka, securing an equitable distribution of river waters is not just a technical bilateral dispute; it is a domestic political imperative that affects the livelihoods of millions of farmers in the northern delta regions. Failure to address this grievance risks fuelling further nationalist rhetoric, which could undermine any progress made in other sectors.
Stability along the border remains another perennial shadow over the relationship, characterized by recurring incidents of illegal migration and civilian casualties that frequently inflame public opinion. India must acknowledge these concerns with greater transparency and adopt a more humane approach to border policing to retain its credibility as a benevolent regional partner. While security remains a paramount concern for New Delhi, particularly regarding the potential for cross-border militancy or insurgent safe havens, the heavy-handed nature of border management has often provided ammunition for anti-India narratives. A transition toward smart border management, utilizing non-lethal technologies and increased joint patrolling, could transform this friction point into a zone of functional cooperation, thereby reducing the trust deficit that currently hampers broader diplomatic ambitions.
Energy cooperation stands out as perhaps the most promising avenue for tangible, mutually beneficial progress in this new era of engagement. India is exceptionally well-positioned to serve as a reliable energy partner for a growing Bangladeshi economy through the expansion of electricity exports and the collaborative development of sustainable infrastructure. The success of the Maitri Super Thermal Power Project and the cross-border hydrocarbon pipelines serves as a blueprint for how economic interdependency can create a cushion against political shocks. By strengthening these connections, both countries can make sure that their paths to development stay linked, which means that neither side can afford to let diplomacy fail. Such functionalism allows for progress in areas of common interest even when higher-level political disagreements remain unresolved.
The path toward full normalization is nevertheless mired in significant legal and diplomatic difficulties, most notably the complex question of Sheikh Hasina’s extradition. New Delhi finds itself in a precarious position, needing to balance its tradition of providing refuge to former allies with the necessity of respecting the judicial processes of a sovereign, elected government in Dhaka. Handling this request will require a calibrated, lawful response that prioritizes institutional frameworks over politically reactive manoeuvres. If handled poorly, this single issue has the potential to derail the entire strategic framework of the relationship, pushing Dhaka further toward other regional powers and creating a vacuum that could be exploited by actors inimical to India’s security interests.
Realism must therefore be the guiding principle for New Delhi as it seeks to reassure the new government in Dhaka of its support for Bangladesh’s democratic transition. While India must extend a hand of cooperation and show flexibility on trade and connectivity, it must also clearly articulate its own core concerns regarding regional stability and the protection of minority communities within Bangladesh. The emphasis in the coming months must be on incremental progress, acknowledging that the deep-seated suspicions of the past cannot be erased overnight. Pragmatism dictates that both nations focus on “low-hanging fruit” in trade and cultural exchange while simultaneously engaging in quiet, high-level backchannel diplomacy to address the more contentious territorial and legal disputes.
The onus lies on both administrations to ensure that this current diplomatic opening does not devolve into yet another chapter of missed possibilities and mutual recrimination. The stakes are extraordinarily high, as a stable and prosperous Bangladesh is essential for the security of India’s northeastern states and the overall integration of the Bay of Bengal region. As Foreign Minister Rahman’s visit concludes, the world will be watching to see if the rhetoric of “reset” translates into a durable partnership based on mutual respect and shared prosperity. By overlooking minor irritants and focusing on the larger strategic picture, India and Bangladesh can redefine their relationship for the twenty-first century, transforming a history of synergy into a future of sustainable and equitable growth for all their people.