New Delhi: China continued to encounter turbulence throughout 2024. However, all the difficulties that China is facing at home and abroad have made Chairman Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) more determined to throw their weight around and irrepressibly bully those who disagree with it. In the coming year, it appears that greater tumult lies ahead for both China and those who deal with it. One critical area to watch in the coming year will be Sino-US relations after Donald Trump begins his second presidential term.
Since Trump's election on November 5, 2024, and even before he will be inaugurated on January 20, China has pulled off many outrageous feats and set preconditions for ongoing bilateral ties. For example, Beijing has hacked the US Treasury Department and executed the "worst telecom hack in US history."
China has also imposed severe export controls and sanctioned American firms. Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy and National Security at the US-based Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, made four predictions regarding Sino-US relations in 2025.
Firstly, "China will focus its rhetoric on areas of potential cooperation with Washington, which will include attempts to establish a 'fresh start' with the newly elected US president. However, Beijing will likely adopt more aggressive language over US actions that it regards as harming its core interests, including Taiwan and the South China Sea."
Secondly, the American academic said, "The United States will reach a consensus that China is its biggest strategic competitor, and China will continue to dominate the trade and national security agenda in Washington." Of course, Trump may act unpredictably, so their fragile relationship risks further destabilisation.
Third, "Forging discrete areas of cooperation will remain key to arresting acute strategic competition," predicted Morris. "Even though the chances of a genuine thaw that resolves fundamental differences and leads to greater cooperation are low in 2025, recent agreements to enhance military-to-military communications and working groups to combat the illicit fentanyl trade are examples of the kinds of cooperation that can build positive momentum."
Finally, Lyle predicted, "Diplomatic engagement will remain a key source of structural stability in the bilateral relationship, and active diplomacy by both sides can keep ties from further fraying in 2025." However, questions remain over China's commitment to keeping communication channels open. The socialist regime has very thin skin, and it tends to pout and give the cold shoulder when it feels offended.
Consider also that Xi has had plenty of time to plan on how to handle the US under Trump a second time around. In Trump's first presidency, China scrambled for appropriate responses, but now Xi is more ready and will likely employ retaliation, adaptation and diversification at various points of their relationship.
China's economy is arguably more self-reliant now, whilst the US economy is more fragile and its political spectrum is deeply divided. China is already tightening the screws on private Western and American companies operating in China, and Xi may use Elon Musk's financial interests there to exert influence on Trump too.
Furthermore, China will doubtlessly be hoping that Trump's erratic behaviour will alienate friendly nations and acquaintances in Asia and elsewhere around the world. Beijing will seek every opportunity to present its alternative worldview, and it is now better equipped to respond to Trump's mercantile gamesmanship.
Xi continues to remonstrate with the Chinese people to "struggle" against the "dangerous storms" lashing it. And the struggle is what the Chinese government and military did against all comers last year. Its prime target has been Taiwan, but it continues to contest Japanese-owned islands in the East China Sea as well. (ANI)
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