HONG KONG: China's leadership views both internal and external developments as major security threats. On 18 June, the International Security and Strategy Center (ISSC) at Tsinghua University released its annual report, 2026 External Security Risks for China, outlining what it considers the country's ten most significant external security challenges. The report offers insight into how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) perceives its strategic environment.
The report identifies cross-strait relations with Taiwan as China's foremost security risk. It cites Taiwan independence efforts, US arms sales to Taipei, and Japan's increasing involvement as key drivers of tension. It also warns that cyberattacks, renewed focus on a possible 2027 conflict timeline, or a high-profile European leader visiting Taiwan could unintentionally escalate tensions.
Despite acknowledging these risks, Beijing continues to increase pressure on Taiwan through military exercises, regular coast guard patrols, and other "gray zone" activities intended to assert its claims without open conflict.
The second-ranked threat is the deterioration of China-Japan relations. The report argues that bilateral ties have shifted from manageable disputes to long-term structural confrontation. It highlights Japan's military expansion, closer cooperation with the United States, and growing security role around Taiwan as sources of concern, while warning that accidental maritime or aerial incidents could trigger escalation.
Critics note, however, that China's own military expansion and increasingly assertive operations around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands have significantly contributed to worsening relations. Third, the report warns of continued US-led efforts to reduce dependence on Chinese technology and supply chains. It argues that technological competition is shifting from temporary trade disputes to long-term strategic containment, with Western initiatives aimed at limiting China's access to advanced technologies and reducing reliance on Chinese critical minerals.
Fourth, the report identifies rising tensions in the South China Sea. It warns that disputes with the Philippines, particularly around Second Thomas Shoal and negotiations over a regional Code of Conduct, could escalate through accidental clashes. It also acknowledges that instability in the region threatens China's trade and energy security.
The fifth risk is global economic and financial instability. Chinese analysts fear that trade tensions, tariffs, and restrictions imposed by other countries in response to China's large trade surplus could weaken export growth and increase economic pressure. Sixth, the report highlights uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It suggests that an end to the war could allow the United States to shift greater strategic attention toward the Indo-Pacific, reduce Russia's dependence on China, and encourage Europe to take a tougher stance toward Beijing.
Seventh, China is concerned about increasingly cautious economic relations with Europe. The report notes that European efforts to reduce dependence on China in areas such as technology, energy, and critical materials are becoming more institutionalized.
Eighth, the report warns about AI-enabled cyberattacks against China's critical infrastructure. Although China has invested heavily in cyber capabilities, it considers attacks on essential infrastructure among its most serious emerging security risks.
Ninth, the report highlights risks to Chinese overseas investments and citizens, particularly in countries affected by terrorism and political instability, including Pakistan.
Finally, the report identifies the possibility of a crisis involving North Korea—including a nuclear test or missile launch—as a potential "black swan" event capable of destabilizing the region. (ANI)
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