Staff Reporter
GUWAHATI: Assam's electricity demand is projected to rise steeply over the next decade, posing significant challenges for energy security and planning.
A report on the Resource Adequacy Plan (Generation) for 2025-26 to 2035-36 prepared by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) for Assam highlights that the state will face energy deficits unless additional generation capacity, particularly coal-based, is secured in time.
The study, which is based on the hourly load pattern of 2024-25, shows that Assam's peak demand typically occurs between August and September, when solar generation is limited. This indicates a growing need for firm and reliable generation sources beyond renewable ones.
According to projections by Assam Power Distribution Company Limited (APDCL), (i) the state's annual energy requirement is expected to grow at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 11.2%, and (ii) peak demand will rise at a CAGR of 9.9% during the forecast period from 2025-26 to 2035-36.
This rapid growth will put immense pressure on Assam's generation resources and procurement strategy, the study said.
With the existing and planned capacity additions, Assam could face an energy deficit ranging from 1.8 to 21.4 billion units (BUs) between 2025-26 and 2034-35. The report warns that without contracting additional power, the state will experience unserved energy in several years.
To bridge this gap, the state will need to contract (i) 2,829 MW of coal-based capacity by 2035-36, beyond what is already planned, and in addition to this (ii) 837-952 MW through Medium-Term Open Access (MToA) and Short-Term Open Access (SToA) in different years. These requirements are likely to be met through power markets, banking, or bilateral agreements.
Despite the pressing need for fossil-based backup, Assam is also expected to make major strides in renewable energy:The share of non-fossil fuel sources in the contracted mix is set to rise from 46% now to 65% by 2035-36, and (ii) the projected capacity mix will ensure compliance with Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) norms.
The Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario for 2035-36 projects has the following capacity mix--coal: 3,423 MW; gas: 428 MW; hydro: 1,399 MW; wind: 1,122 MW; solar: 3,924 MW; storage: 667 MW; Distributed Renewable Energy (DRE): 477 MW; and MToA/SToA procurement: 1,252 MW.
According to the study, the Planning Reserve Margin (PRM)-which indicates available backup capacity-has been assessed at 5% during non-solar hours and 16% during solar hours.
The Resource Adequacy Plan makes it clear that Assam's power sector is entering a phase of high demand growth, with a delicate balance between renewable expansion and the unavoidable reliance on coal-based capacity. Strategic procurement, timely project execution, and advanced forecasting will determine whether the state can meet its growing energy needs at a reasonable cost.
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